Glorious Goodwood Trends & Free Tips: DAY ONE (Tues 30th July 2019)

It’s panama hats, pimms, plus strawberries and cream galore with the 5-day Glorious Goodwood Meeting (Tues 30th July to Sat 3rd Aug). As always, the West Sussex track can expect monster crowds throughout the week with a whole host of top-notch contests each day for punters to get stuck into.

So we’ll be on-hand throughout the whole meeting to take you through the key trends for each day’s LIVE ITV races.

We get going on Day One with four LIVE ITV races, including the Vintage Stakes and Lennox Stakes, plus the recently upgraded Group One Goodwood Cup.

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2019 Glorious Goodwood Trends

DAY ONE – Tuesday 30th July 2019

1.50 – Unibet Handicap Cl2 1m1f192y ITV

16/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
16/17 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
14/17 – Had 4 or more previous runs that season
15/17 – Had won at least 3 times already during their career
14/17 – Carried 8-11 or more
12/17 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Had run at Goodwood before
11/17 – Unplaced last time out
10/17 – Unplaced favourites
10/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/17 – Trained by Mark Johnston
3/17 – Won their last race
2/17 – Trained by Mick Channon
3/17 – Winning favourites (1 co-fav)
Alfarris (13/2 fav) won the race 12 months ago
9 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 9 or higher
8 of the last 13 winners came from a double-figure stall

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: A tricky race to get us going with 18 runners. However, with 16 of the last 17 winners aged 4 or 5 this does knock a few out – First Sitting, Master The World and Breden. 14 of the last 17 winners also carried 8-11 or more in weight, so this is bad news for Soto Sizzler, Bless Him and Nicklaus. It’s also been a top race for the Mark Johnston yard – they’ve won 5 of the last 17 renewals. With that in mind, it might be worth sticking with their two runners – AQUARIUM (e/w) and VENTURA KNIGHT (e/w). The first-named does need to bounce back from a few poor runs, but is dropped to his last winning mark and the return to 1m2f looks a plus too. The other Johnston runner will be ridden by Ryan Moore and that in itself is a good sign. He’s yet to win this season but has not been beaten far in all five races and is also a pound lower again here and is also 8lbs lower than when running down the field at this meeting last season. Of the rest, the Godolphin pair of Mountain Hunter and Setting Sail have to be respected, especially the last-named, who is a proven course and distance winner. Beringer, Fayez and Jazeel are others to consider that certainly have the form to go well if bringing their A-game to the table.

2.25 – Qatar Vintage Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

16/17 – Had won over 6f or 7f before
16/17 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
16/17 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
14/17 – Had 2 or 3 previous career runs
13/17 – Won last time out
12/17 – Placed favourites
11/17 – Winning favourites
10/17 – Won by a March or later-born foal
8/17 – Ran at either Newmarket or Ascot last time out
8/18 – Had won 2 previous races
4/18 – Had run at Goodwood before
4/18 – Trained by Richard Hannon
3/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
3 of the last 10 winners came from stall 9
Dark Vision (10/3 fav) won the race 12 months ago

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Frankie Dettori has a good record in this race and looks to have another good chance this year with the Mark Johnston-trained Visinari. This 2 year-old was turned over at odds-on in the July Stakes last time out, but the step up to 7f looks a big plus. Mystery Power and Lope Y Fernandez are others to note, while Platinum Star and Positive can’t be totally ruled out, but the clear one to beat for me is PINATUBO. This 2 year-old is 3-from-3 and was a very easy winner of the Chesham Stakes last time out. He had Lope Y Fernandez over 3 lengths back in second that day and it will be a shock if this Godolphin runner can’t uphold that form.

3.00 – Qatar Lennox Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

17/17 – Had won at least 2 times before
15/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Had 2 or more previous runs already that season
14/17 – Had won over 7f before
14/17 – Previous Group Race winners
13/17 – Had previously won a Group 2 or 3
11/17 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/17 – Had run at Goodwood before
7/17 – Ran at Ascot last time out
7/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by Richard Hannon
9 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 7 or lower
3 of the last 8 winners came from stall 5
Sir Dancealot (5/1 jfav) won the race 12 months ago

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Several with chances here, with the Ryan Moore-ridden Zaaki, looking one of the main players for the Sir Michael Stoute yard. It will be a shock if he’s not involved. Frankie gets the le-up on Hey Gaman and he can go well too, while Space Traveller won the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot and if building on that shouldn’t be far away. However, I’ll stick with last year’s winner of this race – SIR DANCEALOT (e/w). This 5 year-old beat Suedois, who goes again, by a head and seems to be slowly coming to the boil this season with two okay runs. He’s won the last two races when dropped into a Group Two and his overall form over this 7f trip is excellent, with 6 of his 8 career wins coming over this trip.

3.35 – Qatar Goodwood Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 2m ITV

15/17 – Placed last time out
13/17 – Had 2 or more runs already that season
13/17 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race before
12/17 – Aged 5 or older
11/17 – Had won over at least 2m before
10/17 – Ran at Ascot last time out
10/17 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
10/17 – Had run at Goodwood before
9/17 – Winning favourites
9/17 – Won their previous race
4/17 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
2/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
2/17 – Trained by Michael Bell
All of the last 15 winners had run in the last 45 days
Stradivarius won the race in 2017 & 2018
Trainer John Gosden has trained the last two winners
6 of the last 22 runnings were won by a previous winner of the race
11 of the last 12 winners came from stall 10 or lower

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Cross Counter and Dee Ex Bee ran decent races in the Ascot Gold Cup to be 4^th and second last time out and can go well again, but the horse that beat them that day is the prolific STRADIVARIUS and it’s hard to see the Gosden runner not going in again. He also took this prize 12 months ago and is now 2-from-2 at the track. This gutsy stayer has now won his last seven in-a-row and should be making it eight. Frankie Dettori rides. Of those at bigger prices, Southern France can’t be overlooked with Ryan Moore and Aidan O’Brien teaming-up, so might warrant a small each-way saver too.

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