Saturday Horse Racing Tips & Trends: 19th Oct 2019

More LIVE ITV action on Saturday 20th October – and what a day in prospect! A top card at Ascot for Champions Day that sees four Group Ones, a Group Two and a super-competitive handicap. Bundles to look forward to and as always, we’ll have all the LIVE races covered from a trends angle – use these key trends to find the best profiles of past winners.

Good Luck!

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Ascot Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.35 – Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV

16/17 – Won over 6f previously
16/17 – Won at least 3 times previously
15/17 – Returned 12/1 or shorter
15/17 –  Raced within the last 6 weeks
15/17 – Raced at least 4 times that season
14/17 – Won at Listed or better class previously
13/17 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
13/17 – Raced at Ascot previously (3 won)
12/17 – Finished in the top 4 in their latest race
12/17 – Won a Group race previously
10/17 – Favourites placed
11/17 – Raced at Haydock (6), Goodwood (2) or Newbury (3) last time out
4/17 – Won their latest race
4/17 – Favourites that won
2/17 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan (2 of the last 4)
Sands Of Mali (28/1) won the race in 2018
Librisa Breeze (10/1) won the race in 2017
The Tin Man (13/2) won the race in 2016
Since 2011: 4 of the last 8 winners have come from stalls 12 (2) or 14 (2)
Since 2011: 5 of the last 8 winners came from double-figure stalls
Since 2011: Horses from stalls 12 placed 5 of the last 8 runnings
Since 2011: Horses from stalls 14 placed 4 of the last 8 runnings

The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1

Note: The 2005 renewal was run at Newmarket

The Richard Fahey-trained Sands Of Mali popped up at 28/1 to take this race last season so can’t be ruled out. He’ll love the soft/heavy ground and hasn’t had a hard season so will come here fresher than most. We’ve another past winner too as The Tin Man lines-up as well. This 7 year-old took the pot in 2016 but was only 7^th in the race twelve months ago and has only won one of his last 8 races now. We’ve a few others that ran well in the race last year too – Donjuan Triumphant (3^rd) and Brando (4^th) so if reproducing those runs would have a say too. CAPE BYRON (e/w) bounced back to form last time out here in the G3 Bengough Stakes and even though this is a step up in grade he loves the track and the softer ground are big plusses. His form here at Ascot this season reads 1-1-1! Dream Of Dreams seems to have lost his way after running a close second in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes here in June so needs to bounce back, while So Perfect, Aidan O’Brien yard, Mabs Cross and One Master are others that can’t be discounted. However, HELLO YOUMZAIN looks a fast-improving sprinter too after winning the G1 Sprint Cup last month and will love the soft ground – he’s 2-from-2 when running on soft ground and looks a horse with more to come. Finally, the consistent Advertise is another that is sure to go well with Frankie riding. He’s only finished out of the top two once from his 9 runs and won the G1 Commonwealth Cup here back in June. He’s handled good-to-soft in the past, but my only niggle is that he’s yet to race on ground this deep.

2.10 – Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2) Cl1 2m ITV

14/17 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
14/17 – Won at Listed or better class previously
14/17 – Winning distance – 1 1/2 lengths or less
12/17 – Aged 5 or older
12/17 – Returned 9/2 or shorter
12/17 – Favourites placed
12/17 – Won over at least 2 miles on the flat previously
12/17 – Won at least 5 times previously
11/17 – Raced at least 5 times that season
8/17 – Raced at Longchamp (3), Ascot (2) or Doncaster (3) last time out
8/17 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
8/17 – Won their latest race
5/17 – Irish-trained winners
3/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (2 of the last 4)
2/17 – Trained by Dermot Weld
2/17 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of the last 4)
Stradivarius (Evs fav) won the race in 2018
Since 2011: 5 of the last 8 winners came from stalls 2-4 (inc)
Since 2011: Horses from stall 7 have been placed in 4 of the last 7
The average winning odds in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

Quite simply, this race revolves around one horse – STRADIVARIUS – and it will be a brave punter that takes him on. He landed this race last year and continued his dominance in this sphere by winning all the big cup races and the £1million pound bonus for a second season. He’s now won 10 on the bounce and at the age of just 5 years-old might not have finished improving yet. If you are looking for something to cling to if wanting to take him on, then the heavy ground might be it. He’s yet to race on heavy ground, but has won on soft conditions and does stay further than this 2m trip – so there are signs the heavy conditions will be fine. The Frankie factor will make him popular in the betting regardless and with bundles in-hand on the official ratings, it would be a shock if he’s not making it win number 15 and victory number 11 on the spin. Of the rest, Kew Gardens is the next highest in the ratings and looks most likely to fill second. He was a decent second in the Irish St Leger last time out and looks worth a crack at this longer trip for the first time. Royal Line, Withhold, Capri and Bin Battuta are others that will be fighting it out for the places.

2.45 – Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 1m4f ITV

11/11 – Raced 3 or more times that season
10/11 – Won at Listed or better class previously
9/11 – Returned 6/1 or shorter
9/11 – Won at least 3 times previously
9/11 – Raced within the last 9 weeks
8/11 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd in their last race
8/11 – Won over 1m4f previously
8/11 – Returned between 4/1 and 6/1
8/11 – Rated 110 or higher
7/11 – Favourites placed
7/11 – Aged 3 years-old
5/11 – Won their last race
4/11 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/11 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/11 – Favourites that won
2/11 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (last 2 runnings)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1
Magical (5/1) won the race 12 months ago
3 of the last 10 winners came from stall 2

Note: The 2009 & 2010 renewals were run at Newmarket

The Aidan O’Brien yard have won the last two runnings of this race and are mob-handed again this year with four runners – South Sea Pearl, Pink Dogwood, Fleeting and Delphinia – of that bunch, Fleeting, looks to be their main hope but has also become a hard horse to win with so might be filling a place rather than winning. The Stoute yard are another that have won this race recently – they run Sun Maiden, but having to give weight away makes her task a lot harder. The Dermot Weld runner – TARNAWA (e/w) could be interesting though as any runners this shrewd Irish yard send over shold always be respected. She’s a bit to find on the ratings but has won three of her last four and have proven form in soft ground – there should be more to come. However, it’s another race the John Gosden yard look to hold a lot of aces in with three runners – Sparkle Roll, Anapurna and STAR CATCHER. Of that trio, Anapurna and Star Catcher are very closely-matched, but with Frankie picking to ride Star Catcher that’s good enough for me. Anapurna was a good winner over 1m6f last time in France but the drop back to 1m4f might not be ideal and she was beaten 5 ¾ lengths by Star Catcher in her race before. Star Catcher is also a proven CD winner after landing the Ribblesdale Stakes here in June and is 2-from-2 on soft ground so the conditions should be fine.

3.20 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV

17/17 – Raced at least 3 times that season
16/17 – Raced at Goodwood, Longchamp or Leopardstown last time out
16/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter
16/17 – Aged 3 or 5 years-old
15/17 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race previously
15/17 – Finished in the top three in their last race
14/17 – Favourites placed
13/17 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
10/17 – Raced at Ascot previously (6 won)
9/17 – Won their latest race
9/17 – Won at least 7 times previously
8/17 – Favourites that won
7/17 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
4/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/17 – Trained by John Gosden
3/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/17 – Trained by Freddie Head
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 3/1
9 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 2-8 (inc)
Since 2011: Horses from stall 2 and 7 have won 4 of the last 8 runnings

Note: The 2005 renewal was run at Newmarket

Several course specialists here – including Raising Sands, Accidental Agent, Lord Glitters and Century Dream, while with another Frankie/Gosden runner in King Of Comedy, plus this season’s 2000 Guineas winner – Magna Grecia – is back on the track after last being seen flopping in the Irish Guineas back in May. If back to his best, then he would certainly be dangerous to rule out, in a race the Aidan O’Brien yard have done well in over the years, but this will be the softest ground he’s encountered to date. Godolphin’s Benbatl returned last time with a smooth 5 length beating of King Of Comedy at HQ and that run along with being the top-rated in the field will make him hard to beat. However, the soft ground (won on good last time) is not ideal as he’s raced three times with some degree of soft (or heavy) in the ground and been beaten each time. That last run also came off a long break so there is also the dreaded ‘bounce-factor’ to take into account. So that leaves us with the French raider – THE REVENANT. This 4 year-old has won 8 of his 10 starts, including many on very soft and heavy ground so we know conditions will be spot-on for him. He bolted-up in a Group 2 at Longchamp last time out over this trip and looks well worth a crack at running in Group One company for the first time. Of the rest, we’ve another runner for the Dermot Weld yard – IMAGING (e/w) – he was only ½ a length behind The Revenant two runs ago in Germany and should be a lot fitter for a recent run (2) at Tipperary as that came off a 4 month break.

4.00 – Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1) Cl1 1m2f ITV

17/17 – Won at least 4 times previously
16/17 – Won between 4 and 8 times previously
16/17 – Aged 5 or younger
16/17 – Finished in the top 3 in their latest race
15/17 – Won over 1m2f previously
15/17 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race previously
13/17 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/17 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
12/17 – Raced 5 or more times that season
10/17 – Won their last race
7/17 – Raced at either Longchamp (4) or Goodwood (3) last time out
6/17 – Favourites unplaced
6/17 – Returned a double-figure price
5/17 – Favourites
4/17 – Won by a French-based trainer
3/17 – Ridden by Tom Queally
2/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (last 2)
2/17 – Trained by John Gosden (last 2)
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never won this race
Since 2011: Horses from stall 5 have won 2 of the last 6 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

The first thing that leaps off the page here is that the Aidan O’Brien yard have NEVER won this race, but they will be trying to put that right here with the 122-rated Magical, who we last saw running fifth in the Arc. The drop back to 1m2f looks a good move too, but let’s not forget that she was beaten in the Fillies’ and Mares race at this meeting last season by CORONET, who also runs. This John Gosden-trained 5 year-old has 7lbs to find on these terms but she rarely runs a bad race here at Ascot – her form here reads 1-3-3-2. The drop back to 1m2f will be okay in these conditions too and was a nice winner on heavy ground in France last time out so heads here in tip-form form. She’s been freshened-up with a 2 month break too, with this race being a firm target all season. Japanese raider – Deirdre – was a shock winner of the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood back in August and should be thereabouts, but has 3 lengths to find with Magical on their Leopardstown run last month. Mehdaayih is another to note as her last run in France – when a beaten favourite – was too bad to be true. The worry would be the softer ground again here though. So, the other one with a big chance looks to be Addeybb. This 5 year-old was a nice winner of the Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot in June and has shown a liking for soft ground in the past too. He was a nice winner of the Rose Of Lancaster Stakes at Haydock last time out too and deserves a stab at this Group One level for the first time. However, that would be my concern. Yes, he’ll love the ground, but I can’t help thinking that he’s a horse that will just fall short of the top level, but mop-up plenty more Listed G2 & G3 contests.

4.40 – Balmoral Handicap (Sponsored By Qipco) Cl2 1m ITV

Just 5 previous runnings
5/5 – Winners drawn 10 or lower
4/5 – Carried between 9-1 and 9-5 in weight
4/5 – Winners ran at Newmarket last time out
4/5 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
3/5 – Previous winners were aged 5 years-old
1/5 – Winning favourite
The average winning SP in the last 5 runnings is 10/1
Sharja Bridge (8/1) won this race in 2018
Trainers Roger Varian, David O’Meara, Roger Charlton, Saeed Bin Suroor and Marcus Tregoning have won the race in the past
Horses from stalls 12 or 13 have been placed in 3 of the last 4 runnings

20 runners here and despite the big-field we are looking like we are going to get a fairly short-priced favourite in Lord North. His chance is an obvious one after winning the Cambridgeshire with a bit up it’s sleeve last time out at Newmarket. However, a 12lb rise here makes life harder and even though there should be more to come (only had 5 career runs), there is certainly no value in his price. Looking at the trends, we’ve only had 5 past runnings, but with ALL five winners coming from stalls 10 or lower then, Lord North’s draw (20) might also be seen as a negative. 4 of the last 5 winners carried between 9-1 and 9-5 in weight too, so this is good news for GLEN SHIEL, Pogo, COMMANDER COLE and DUNKIRK HARBOUR. Of those four, only Pogo is drawn high so the other three – Glen Shiel, Commander Cole and Dunkirk Harbour might be worth having on your side. All three head here off the back of decent recent runs too, while Commander Cole also represents a yard (Bin Suroor) that have won this race in the past too. Of the rest Kick On has the form to get well and the very consistent Kynren should be in the mix. He’s a horse that loves Ascot and was a good winner of the Challenge Cup here over 7f two weeks ago. He’s up 6lbs for that so a career-best is needed, but with 12 top three finishes from his 16 runs then he’s not often far away in his races. Biometric, Amedeo Modigliani and Clon Coulis are others to consider.

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The post Saturday Horse Racing Tips & Trends: 19th Oct 2019 appeared first on Racing Ahead.