Saturday Horse Racing Tips & Trends: 3rd Nov 2019

It’s jump action all the way this Saturday as the hedge-hoppers take over from the flat horses with the new National Hunt season starting to hit top gear now.

Wetherby and Ascot are where the ITV cameras are at as we’ve seven races spread across the two venues with the Grade Two Charlie Hall Chase the feature contest at Wetherby and with some familiar faces lining-up then it’s a must-see early season contest,  while at Ascot the Sodexo Gold Cup heads their bill.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at RACING AHEAD with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

1.35 – Ascot Underwriting Chase (A Novices´ Limited Handicap) Cl3 2m3f ITV4

6 previous runnings
6/6 – Aged 7 or younger
6/6 – Irish bred
5/6 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
4/6 – Yet to win over fences
3/6 – Aged 6 year-old
2/6 – Had run over hurdles at Ascot before
1/6 – Winning favourites
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 28% record with his chasers at the track
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 11/2

2.10 – Byrne Group Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m1f ITV4

13/16 – Aged 8 years-old or younger
11/16 – Irish (5) or French (6) bred
11/16 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences before
9/16 – Having their first run of the new season
9/16 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
8/16 – Rated 130 or lower
8/16 – Unplaced favourites
5/16 – Aged 8 years-old
5/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Ran at either Ascot (2) or Aintree (2) last time out
4/16 – Won carrying 11-12
3/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/16 – Trained by Venetia Williams
2/16 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2

2.45 – Sodexo Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m ITV4

16/16 – Aged between 4 and 6 years-old
15/15 – Had won over at 2m or 2m1f over hurdles before
13/15 – Never raced at Ascot before
12/15 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles
9/15 – Having their first run of the season
9/15 – Unplaced last time out
8/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Winning favourites (1 co, 2 joint)
6/15 – Ran at Huntingdon (3) or Aintree (3) last time out
6/15 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
5/15 – Won by a French bred horse
3/15 – Ridden by a conditional jockey
2/15 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/15 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
2/15 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
3/15 – Won by trainer Alan King, including last two renewals
6 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 years-old.
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

3.20 – Sodexo Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m ITV4

14/14 – Had won a chase race over at least 2m4f before
11/14 – Didn’t win last time out
10/14 – Had run at Ascot before (4 won)
9/14 – Had won at least 3 times over fences before
9/14 – Unplaced favourites
9/14 – Carried 10-10 or more
9/14 – Aged 8 or older
8/14 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m before
8/14 – Having their first run of the season
8/14 – Unplaced in their last race
8/14 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
6/14 – Officially rated 135 to 138 inc
5/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/14 – Won by the Pipe stable
3/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained by Gary Moore
2/14 – Ran at Sandown last time out
2/14 – Ridden by Aidan Coleman
2/14 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
Go Conquer won the race in 2017 and was third in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/1

Wetherby Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.20 bet365 Handicap Chase Cl3 (4yo+ 0-125) 2m3 1/2f ITV4

Just one previous running
Trainer Charlie Longsdon won the 2018 running
Trainer Philip Kirby has a 45% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 31% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has a 21% record with his chasers at the track
Jockey Harry Skelton has a 34% record riding over fences at the track

1.55 – bet365 Mares´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m110y ITV4

12/12 – Had won over at least 2m1f over hurdles before
11/12 – Had between 2-5 previous hurdles wins to their name
10/12 – Having their first run of the season
9/12 – Never raced at Wetherby before
8/12 – Finished unplaced last time out
7/12 – Placed favourites
7/12 – Had won a NH Flat race previously
6/12 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
4/12 – Ran at Punchestown last time out
5/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by John Quinn
Lady Buttons (7/2) won this race in 2018 and was second d in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/4

3.05 – bet365 Hurdle (West Yorkshire Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m26y ITV4

17/17 – Had won over at least 2m3f over hurdles before
16/17 – Had won at least 3 times over hurdles before
15/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Won this on their seasonal reappearance
14/17 – Failed to win their last race
12/17 – Officially rated 149 or higher
12/17 – Placed favourites
11/17 – Aged 6,7 or 8 years-old
9/17 – Finished unplaced last time out
8/17 – Ran at either Aintree (5) or Cheltenham (3) last time out
7/17 – Had won at Wetherby before
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/17 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1

3.40 – bet365 Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f ITV

15/17 – Were having their first run of the season
15/17 – Rated 151 or higher
14/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Had won over at least 3m over fences before
12/17 – Aged 8 or older
12/17 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
11/17 – Ran at either Ayr (3), Aintree (6) or Cheltenham (2) last time out
10/17 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
10/17 – Placed favourites
7/17 – Had run at Wetherby before (3 won)
6/17  – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (5 wins in total)
2/17 – Trained by Evan Williams
Definitly Red (3/1) won the race in 2018
Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race in 1992, 1994, 2005, 2007 & 2017
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 7/1

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