Saturday Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 30th Nov 2019

Another huge Saturday ahead with the Hennessy Gold Cup – or as it’s now called The Ladbroke Trophy Chase – plus the Fighting Fifth Hurdle as the main contests at Newbury and Newcastle – As always, we’ve got all the ITV TV trends to help you find the best winning profile of past winners of the main races.

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Newbury Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 – Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m4f ITV

Seven previous runnings
3 of the last 7 winners aged 5 years-old
2 winning favourites (both joint)
6 of the 7 winners carried between 10-10 and 11-6
Nicky Henderson, Philip Hobbs, Paul Nicholls, Alan King, Rebecca Curtis & Ali Stronge have trained the winners

2.25 Ladbrokes Intermediate Hurdle (Limited Handicap) (Registered As The Gerry Fielden Hurdle) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m69y ITV

13/13 – Had at least 4 runs over hurdles before
12/13 – Aged 6 or younger
12/13 – Won over 2m (hurdles) before
11/13 – Won just 1-2 times in the past (hurdles)
10/13 – Irish, French or German bred
10/13 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
8/13 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
8/13 – Finished in the top three last time out
7/13 – Had raced at Newbury before
7/13 – Unplaced favourites
6/13 – Officially rated between 126-134
5/13 – Aged 5 years-old
4/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/12 – Raced at Aintree last time out
2/13 – Won last time out
7 of the last 12 winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old
Global Citizen (5/1) won the race in 2018

3.00 – Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) ITV 3m2f110y

15/17 – Aged 8 or younger
15/17 – Had won between 2-5 previous races over fences
15/17 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m before
13/17 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Finished in the first 3 last time out
13/17 – Carried 10-13 or more
12/17 – Had run at Newbury before (8 had won over fences there)
12/17 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
11/17 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
11/17 – Had won a Grade 3 or better class chase race before
11/17 – Rated between 140 and 151
11/17 – Had a previous run that season
10/17 – Won last time out
10/17 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
9/17 – Unplaced favourites
8/17 – Ran at either Aintree (2) or Cheltenham (6) last time out
6/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/17 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of last 7)
2/17 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty (2 of last 7)
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 9/1
Since 1968 there has only been one winner aged in double-figures (1981 Diamond Edge, 10)
Since 1990 (28 runnings) there have been 13 winners (48%) aged 7 years-old

3.40 – Ladbrokes Handicap Chase (for the Jim Joel Memorial Trophy) Cl2 2m1f ITV

15/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Had run within the last 5 weeks
11/17 – Officially rated between 126-136
10/17 – French bred
10/17 – Had won a UK chase race over 2m1f
10/17 – Had won between 2-5 chase races in the UK
10/17 – Winning distance – 2 1/4 lengths or more
9/17 – Placed in their last race
8/17 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
7/17 – Unplaced favourites
6/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/17 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/17 – Won a chase race at Newbury before
2/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/17 – Trained by Venetia Williams
10 of the last 13 winners carried between 10-8 and 11-3
Lady Buttons (5/2 fav) won the race in 2018

Newcastle Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/ATR)

2.05 – BetFair Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

17/17 – Won a hurdles race over at least 2m before
16/17 – Won at least a Grade 2 hurdle before
15/17 – Finished in the first two in their latest race
14/17 – Raced in the Champion Hurdle later that same season
14/17 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
13/17 – Placed favourites
13/17 – Officially rated 151 or higher
11/17 – Won their last race
10/17 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
10/17 – Placed in the top 6 in the Champion Hurdle later that season
8/17 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
6/17 – Won by an Irish bred horse
4/17 – Won by an Irish based yard
4/17 – Raced over hurdles at Newcastle before
4/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (4 of last 11)
3/17 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 5)
2/17 – Won the Champion Hurdle later that same season (2008 Punjabi, 2018 Buveur d’Air)
Buveur D’Air has won the last two runnings
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 5/1

3.20 – BetFair Rehearsal Chase (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 3m ITV

14/15 – Didn’t win their last race
13/15 – Irish bred
13/15 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
12/15 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
11/15 – Had won a UK chase race over at least 3m
11/15 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
10/15 – Unplaced last time out
9/15 – Had won at least 3 times over fences in the UK
7/15 – Returned 10/3 or shorter in the betting
6/15 – Unplaced favourites
5/15 – Aged 8 years-old
4/15 – Ran at either Cheltenham (2) or Newbury (2) last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/15 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/15 – Trained by Nicky Richards
Lake View Lad (5/1) won the race in 2018
Beware The Bear (11/4 fav) won the race in 2017
Otago Trial won the race in 2016
Note: The 2002, 2003, & 2004 runnings were at Chepstow

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