Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 7th Dec 2019

As we move into the second week in December the top-class jump action continues to come at as thick and fast as this Saturday the ITV cameras head to Sandown racecourse for their Tingle Creek meeting, plus they are also up at Aintree racecourse to take in four races that include the Becher Chase and Grand Sefton Chase – two races that are run over the unique Grand National-style fences.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at RACING AHEAD with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

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Sandown Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 – Read Road To Cheltenham At racingtv.com Henry VIII Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV4

16/16 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
16/16 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
15/16 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
15/16 – Had won a UK chase race over at least 2m
15/16 – Aged 6 or younger
14/16 – French (10) or Irish (4) bred
13/16 – Won last time out
11/16 – Placed favourites
11/16 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Raced at either Cheltenham (6) or Warwick (4) last time out
10/16 – Winning distance – 2 ¾ lengths or more
10/16 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Arkle Chase (2 winners)
7/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/16 – Winners went onto finish 1^st or 2^nd in that season’s Arkle Chase
2/16 – Trained by Alan King
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 5/1

2.25 – Jumeirah Hotels And Resorts December Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 1m7f216y ITV4

15/16 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
14/16 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
14/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
12/16 – Aged 4,5 or 6 years-old
13/16 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
11/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
11/16 – Carried 10-13 or less
10/16 – Rated between 116-128
9/16 – Irish bred
8/16 – Won last time out
9/16 – Unplaced favourites
4/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
9 of the last 10 winners returned 8/1 or shorter

3.00 – Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV4

16/17 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
16/17 – Aged 9 or younger
15/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/17 – Had won a Grade One chase before
14/17 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s QM Champion Chase
13/17 – Officially rated 165 or higher
13/17 – Placed favourites
13/17 – Aged between 5-8 years-old
12/17 – French bred
13/17 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
11/17 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
12/17 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
10/17 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
10/17 – Won last time out
9/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
9/17 – Had won a chase race at Sandown before
6/17 – Went onto win the Champion Chase (Altior, Dodging Bullets, Sire de Grugy, Sprinter Sacre, Master Minded & Moscow Flyer) at the Cheltenham Festival that season
3/17 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
1/17 – Went onto win the Gold Cup (Kauto Star) at the Cheltenham Festival that season

Note: The 2010 renewal was staged at Cheltenham

3.35 – Betfair London National Handicap Chase Cl2 3m5f110y ITV4

14/15 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Aged 7 or older
14/15 – Won between 2-6 times over fences before
14/15 – Had won (fences) over at least 3m before
13/15 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
12/15 – Rated 126 or higher
12/15 – Aged 8 or older
11/15 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
10/15 – Unplaced favourites
10/15 – Irish bred
9/15 – Had raced over fences at Sandown before (2 won)
8/15 – Carried 11-0 or more
5/15 – Ran at either Cheltenham (3) or Towcester (2) last time out
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/15 – Trained by Tom George
1/15 – Winning favourites

Aintree Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.30 – Randox Health Becher Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m2f ITV4

14/17 – Had won between 2-5 times over fences before
13/17 – Carried 10-12 or less
13/17 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
13/17 – Had no more than 1 start that season
12/17 – Officially rated between 123-138
12/17 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
12/17 – Had run over these Grand National-style fences before
11/17 – Irish-bred winners
11/17 – Aged 9 or older
11/17 – Had raced at Aintree before
10/17 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
10/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/17 – Ran in the previous season’s Grand National
7/17 – Placed favourites
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/17 – Irish-trained winners
3/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
1/17 – Went onto win the Grand National later in their career
0/17 – Went onto win the Grand National that same season
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 6 times since 1993
Walk In The Mill won the race in 2018
Blaklion won the race in 2017

2.05 – Download The App At Virgin Bet Fillies’ Juvenile Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 (3Yyo) 2m1f ITV4

Just 7 previous runnings
7/7 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
6/7 – Won between 0-1 times over hurdles
6/7 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
6/7 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Winning distance 8 or more lengths
6/7 – Carried 10-12 in weight
4/7 – Winning favourites
3/7 – Irish-trained winners
3/7 – Won last time out
2/7 – Trained by Alan King
2/7 – Trained by Gavin Cromwell

2.40 – Virgin Bet Price Boasts Many Clouds Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 3m1f ITV4

Just 8 previous runnings
8/8 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
6/8 – Aged 8 or younger
5/8 – Winning favourites
Definitly Red won the race in 2017 and 2018
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2013 & 2014
Trainer Nicky Henderson won the race in 2011

3.15 – Virgin Bet Grand Sefton Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f110y ITV

13/14 – Had between 1-4 previous chase wins
12/14 – Aged 8 or older
12/14 – Rated 124 or more
11/14 – Had run at Aintree before (4 over the GN style fences)
more
10/14 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
10/14 – Had won (chase) over at least 2m4f before
9/14 – Carried 10-12 or more
9/14 – Irish bred
6/14 – Returned a double-figure price
6/14 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
4/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (5^th & 7^th)
1/14 – Won last time out
10 of the last 13 winners were aged 8 or 9 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/1

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