TV Trends and Tips: 27th Dec 2019

No let-up for the top-class racing action over the festive period with another huge day of National Hunt action on Friday 27th December.

The ITV cameras head to Kempton for three races for the second and final day of their Winter Festival, while they are also at Chepstow to take in the Welsh National – Did you know 15 of the last 17 Welsh National winners were aged 9 or younger, and 11 of the last 17 winners carried 10-8 or less in weight?

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here on RACING AHEAD with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

Kempton Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.55 – Ladbrokes Mares´ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m110y ITV

12/12 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
11/12 – Priced 17/2 or shorter
10/12 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
9/12 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles previously
8/12 – Favourites that were placed in the top 3
8/12 – Won over 3m previously
6/12 – Won their last race
6/12 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
6/12 – Ran at the track previously
5/12 – Winning favourites
4/12 – Aged 5 years-old
2/12 – Raced at Newbury last time out

RA VERDICT: CULTURE DE SIVOLA
Danger: MISS TYNTE

2.30 – Ladbrokes Desert Orchid Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

10/12 – Aged 8 or younger
9/12 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
9/12 – Run at the track previously
9/12 – Won 4 (or more) times over fences
9/12 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
9/12 – Winning favourites
9/12 – Officially Rated 160+
7/12 – French bred
7/12 – Ran at Sandown last time out
4/12 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/12 – Trained by Alan King
2/12 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
Altior (1/8 fav) won the race 12 months ago

RA VERDICT: SCEAU ROYAL
Danger: DUC DES GENIEVRES

3.05 – Ladbrokes ‘Where The Nation Plays’ Handicap Chase Cl2 3m ITV

12/12 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
11/12 – Priced between 7/2 and 12/1
11/12 – Aged 8 or younger
10/12 – Carried 10-13 or more in weight
9/12 – Won between 2-3 (chase) before
7/12 – Favourites Unplaced
5/12 – Officially Rated between 122-129
4/12 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd in their last race
4/12 – Ran at Kempton previously
4/12 – Won over 3m (or further) previously
3/12 – Ran at Ascot in their last race
3/12 – Winning favourites (joint)
2/12 – Trained by Nicky Henderson

RA VERDICT: HIGHWAY ONE O ONE
Danger: DEUVILLE DANCER

Chepstow Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

2.50 – Coral Welsh Grand National (A Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f110y ITV

17/17 – Had won between 1-5 chase races before
17/17 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
17/17 – Had won over at least 3m before (fences)
15/17 – Aged 9 or younger
15/17 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
13/17 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
13/17 – Aged 8 or younger
11/17 – Carried 10-8 or less in weight
11/17 – Had won just 2 or 3 times before over fences
11/17 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
10/17 – Irish bred
8/17 – Had won over fences at Chepstow before
6/17 – Unplaced favourites
6/17 – Won last time out
6/17 – French bred
6/17 – Had run in the Welsh National before
4/17 – Ran at Chepstow last time out
3/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 10/1

RA VERDICT: ELEGANT ESCAPE
Dangers: PRIME VENTURE & ARTHUR’S GIFT 

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