2020 Stayers Hurdle Free Tips and Trends

Billed as the feature race on the third day (Thursday) of the Cheltenham Festival, the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (formerly the World Hurdle) is run over a distance of 3m with 12 hurdles to jump.

In recent years, the contest has been dominated by previous winners of the race with the French-trained, Baracouda, landing the prize twice, the gutsy Inglis Drever winning three times, while the Paul Nicholls-trained Big Buck’s took the honours four times on the bounce between 2009-2012.

In 2018 we saw the Willie Mullins yard win the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle for the second year in a row – this time with the 7 year-old Penhill, while it was Paisley Park that won the race in 2019 and gave trainer Emma Lavelle her first winner in the race.

Here at RACING AHEAD we look back at recent Stayers’ Hurdle winners and give you the key stats to take into the 2020 renewal – this year run on 12th March 2020. =====================================================

Recent Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle Winners

2019 – PAISLEY PARK (11/8 fav)
2018 – PENHILL (12/1)
2017 – NICHOLS CANYON (10/1)
2016 – THISTLECRACK (Evs)
2015 – COLE HARDEN (14/1)
2014 – MORE OF THAT (15/2)
2013 – SOLWHIT (17/2)
2012 – BIG BUCK’S (5/6 fav)
2011 – BIG BUCK’S (10/11 fav)
2010 – BIG BUCK’S (5/6 fav)
2009 – BIG BUCK’S (6/1)
2008 – INGLIS DREVER (11/8 fav)
2007 – INGLIS DREVER (5/1)
2006 – MY WAY de SOLZEN (8/1)
2005 – INGLIS DREVER (5/1)
2004 – IRIS’S GIFT (9/2)
2003 – BARACOUDA (9/4 fav)

Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle Betting Trends

15/17 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
15/17 – Had raced within the last 10 weeks
14/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
14/17 – Aged 8 or younger
13/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/17 – Placed favourites
13/17 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
12/17 – Went onto run at the Aintree Grand National Meeting later that season
12/17 – Had won over hurdles at Cheltenham before
12/17 – Had raced that calendar year
11/17 – Won their latest race
10/17 – Rated 163 or higher
10/17 – Contested either the Cleeve Hurdle (7) or the Long Walk Hurdle (3) last time out
7/17 – French-bred
7/17 – Went onto win at Aintree later that season
7/17 – Winning favourite
4/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/17 – Irish-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 11/2

Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle Stats:

Every winner since 1972 has been aged 6 or older
Since 1972 there have been 7 previous winners of the race
Horses that ran at the previous season’s Cheltenham Festival are 21 from 25 Horses that were placed fourth or better last time out have won 31 of the last 32 renewals
The top five in the betting have finished 1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd in 7 of the last 16 renewals
Just three Irish-trained winners since 1996 – Solwhit (2013), Nichols Canyon (2017), Penhill (2018)
All of the last 32 winners were aged 9 or younger  

Paddy Power Stayers Hurdle – 22 Year Trends

17/22 – British-trained winners
2/22 – French-trained winners
3/22 – Irish-trained winners
Willie Mullins (Ire) has trained just 2 winners of the race (2017, Nichols Canyon, 2018 Penhill)
Nicky Henderson (UK) has trained just 1 winner of the race (2000, Bacchanal)
Paul Nicholls (UK) has trained 4 of the last 11 winners Jonjo O’Neill (UK has trained 2 of the last 16 winners  

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: This race is quite simple really – you are either with PAISLEY PARK, or not! As you can see by the fact I’ve bolded his name up – I’m firmly in his camp. Yes, this season he’s maybe not quite set the world alight in the manner of his wins at Newbury and Cheltenham but has now won his last seven on the spin and has taken all the main trials ahead of this race. He’s still only 8 years-old and with connections taking their time with him this season will be cherry-ripe for his defence bid. If you are against him, then you will probably be siding with Summerville Boy, who was only 1 ¼ lengths behind Paisley Park in the Cleeve Hurdle here in January. He’s a decent horse and has improved again since being stepped up in trip. He’s got a good record at the track and should give the hot-pot a real race. He is still rated 13lbs inferior to Paisley though so based on that would have to find a bit more. The other improve in the race could be Emitom, from the Warren Greatrex yard that won this in 2015 with Cole Harden. He’s 22lbs behind the favourite in the ratings but is rapidly improving and took another step forward last time when winning well at Haydock.

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