2020 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY THREE (Thurs 12th March 2020)

Each day of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at Racing Ahead will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival for you!

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DAY THREE: Thursday 12th March 2020

13:30 Marsh Novices’ Chase   2m 4f

2019 Winner: DEFI DU SEUIL 3/1 fav
Trainer – Philip Hobbs
Jockey – Barry Geraghty

Pluses….

• 7 of the 9 winners were Irish-trained
• The last 9 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
• Willie Mullins has trained 4 of the last 9 winners
• 7 of the last 9 winners had won a Graded Chase before
• 7 of the last 9 winners had 7 or less runs over hurdles
• 8 of the last 9 past winners had run at the Festival before (4 had won)
• 8 of the 9 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
• 7 of the last 9 winners came from the top 2 in the betting
• 8 of the last 9 winners finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
• 8 of the last 9 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
• 7 of the last 9 winners won last time out
• 5 of the last 9 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
• 6 of the last 9 winners ran between 47-54 days ago
• 7 year-olds have won 6 of last 9 renewals

Negatives….

• Be careful of horses rated 146 or less
• Just two British-trained winners so far
• The top-rated horse is just 1 from 9
• Since 1990 all Festival Novice Chase winners have been aged 8 or younger
• 4 winning favourites in 9 runnings (1 co)
• Just 1 of the last 9 winners had less than 3 career chase starts
• Just 1 winner had been off for more than 54 days

A decent renewal with some promising Novice chasers on show. If Faugheen turns up here, instead of the RSA Chase, then he’s going to be popular – he’s 3-from-3 over fences and brough the house down last time in Ireland with his Flogas Novice Chase victory. However, he’s not for me here, with that last race looking a tough one. Allaho is another that could head here instead of the RSA and if so, over this shorter trip, he’d be of interest for the Willie Mullins yard that have a fantastic record in the race (4-from-8). There will be supporters of Samcro still too despite not quite living up to the ‘second coming’ tag that many gave him a few seasons ago. Faugheen put him in his place last time out (10 lengths) at Limerick, but there are reports that SAMCRO (e/w) scoped badly after the race – the Elliott team didn’t want to make a big thing about it and look like they are making excuses for him all the time. If that’s true, then he’d be foolish to ignore and might just finally prove his doubters wrong by winning a second Festival race – don’t forget he took the Ballymore back in 2018. The other obvious pick in the race is ITCHY FEET. The Olly Murphy yard are starting to build up a nice string to take on the big boys with and this is another that falls into that category. This 6 year-old is 2-from-2 over fences and could not have been more impressive in winning the Grade One Scilly Isles Chase last time out at Sandown. He was third in the 2019 Supreme too so has tasted the Festival before and that can only be a further plus.

14:10 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle   3m

2019 Winner: SIRE DU BERLAIS 4/1 fav
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Barry Geraghty

Pluses….

• 8 of the last 10 winners started their careers in bumpers (6) or points (2)
• Irish have won the last 4 runnings
• 9 of the last 12 winners placed in their last race (5 won)
• 10 of the last 19 winners were from outside the top 5 in the betting
• The last 9 winners were rated 138 or higher
• 9 of the last 13 winners were rated between 132-142 (inc)
• The last 9 winners were rated between 138-148
• 9 of the last 15 winners had won over at least 2m7f
• 10 of the last 13 winners had run 10 or less times over hurdles before
• 8 of the last 19 winners won their last race
• 3 of the last 11 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle
• Look for Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies, Mullins and Pipe-trained runners
• Respect JP McManus-owned horses – won it again in 2019 too
• Trainer Gordon Elliott has won the last two runnings
• Jockey Davy Russell has ridden 3 of the last 4 winners

Negatives….

• Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
• Horses that have won 3+ times that season are just 1 from 10
• Since 2000 only 1 winner didn’t have a run that calendar year
• 5 year-olds have won just twice since 1973
• French-bred horses are currently on a run of 2-86
• All horses rated 150+ since 2000 have failed to finish in the top 2
• 2 winning favourites in last 14 years
• Paul Nicholls is currently 0 from 18 (One third and two 2nds in the last 6 runnings)
• Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single-figures are just 3 from 41

If last year’s winner – Sire Du Berlais – lines-up again then he’ll be looking to become the first back-to-back winner of the race since Buena Vista (2010-11). He’s still only 8 years-old so should have more to come but is rated 7lbs higher this year. He should, however, be spot-on after a recent fourth at Warwick and having finished 4^th in the Martin Pipe back in 2018 too, then he’s tuning into a solid Festival performer. Elliott, who trained Berlais, has won the last two runnings as well, but it’s another of his THE STORYTELLER (e/w) that looks interesting. This 9 year-old was the winner of the Brown Merriebelle Plate in 2018 so has Festival pedigree butis back over hurdles here on what looks a very nice mark. He’d been rated in the 160’s over fences only last year but is in here off 149 over the smaller obstacles. He’s not been out since December – probably in a bid to protect his mark – but is sure to be well tuned-up for this. Of the rest, I think WELSH SAINT is another to have on your radar. This Nicky Henderson runner has won two of his last three and is only 4lbs higher than his last win at Haydock – he looks the sort to have more to come. THIRD WIND is the final one of interest. This Hughie Morrison runner has won 4 of his 5 hurdles runs and took a good scalp in Jatiluwih last time out at Wincanton. A 4lb rise for that looks fair and should improve further for this step up to 3m for the first time.

14:50 Ryanair Chase   2m 5f

2019 Winner: FRODON (9/2)
Trainer – Paul Nicholls
Jockey – Bryony Frost

Pluses….

• 21 of the 29 winners and runners-up had won at the course before
• 6 of the last 7 winners were 2^nd season chasers
• 13 of the last 15 had won at Cheltenham previously
• 9 of the last 12 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase before
• The King George VI Chase is often a good guide (7 from 26)
• The previous year’s renewal is often a good guide
• 12 of the last 15 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
• 7 of the last 8 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
• 11 of the last 12 winners were rated 161+
• 4 of the last 15 winners were placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase last time out
• 11 of last 15 winners were fav or 2^nd fav
• 7 of the last 8 winners had 11 (or less) runs over fences
• Trainers Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe & Nicky Henderson are respected
• Respect first time headgear (2 from 8)
• 8 of the last 12 winners DIDN’T win last time out
• Last 6 winners were French-bred

Negatives….

• The Irish are 3 from 51 runners in this race
• Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
• Avoid horses aged 11 or older
• Just one winner rated 160 or below
• Just 4 of the last 12 won last time out
• All winners ran 4 or less times that season
• No winner was having their Festival debut

Another one of the big Festival races and we’ve another decent renewal. Min arguably has the best form in the book but is likely to not even go off favourite. He was a fair second to Chacun Pour Soi last time in Ireland and regardless of what that horse does in the Champion Chase, it’s still rock-solid form. He’s won 8 of his 15 runs over fences and finished in the top two 12 times, while Mullins has won two of the last four runnings. Those against him will look to his form at Cheltenham – he’s yet to win here from three runs at the Festival, but all three came behind Altior in various races. Some feel that he does handle the track, but I’d have liked him to have won here before and his run in the Champion Chase last year (beated 11 lengths) further backs up that he’s got a bit to prove at this venue. Last year’s Close Brothers winner – A Plus Tard – is the one that looks likely to prevent Min from being the favourite. This Henry De Bromhead runner is reported in rude health ahead of this and 6 year-old has top form after beating Chacun Pour Soi last time at Leopardstown. He’s been kept fresh for this and being a proven Festival winner it’s hard to crab his chance – I can’t put you off him! However, for the sake of looking for a bit better value I think last year’s winner – FRODON – is worth sticking with – especially if the ground remains on the soft side. This Nicholls runner is still only 8 year-old but is having his 35^th career run here. He heads here off the back of a return to winning ways too, when going in at Kempton and can hopefully get them all out of their comfort zones by piling on the pressure from the front again. Of the rest, Riders OnTheStorm has done little wrong this season, but looked to have a hard race at Ascot last time and wasn’t certain to win that race either – I think that might have left it’s mark. ASO (e/w), who was runner-up in the race at 33/1 last year, could be the one when looking at those at the bigger prices.

15:30 Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle 3m

2019 Winner: PAISLEY PARK (11/8 fav)
Trainer – Emma Lavelle
Jockey – Aidan Coleman

Pluses….

• 11 of the last 15 won last time out
• 11 of the last 19 winners were second season hurdlers
• 27 of the last 30 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
• 17 of the last 19 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
• 8 of the last 18 were French Bred
• Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
• 15 of the last 18 winners finished 1^st or 2^nd in all their hurdling runs that season
• 13 of the last 15 winners started 10/1 or less in the betting
• Respect past winners of the race
• 15 of the last 23 winners had won 7 or less times over hurdles

Negatives….

• Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1^st or 2^nd last time out (2 from 20)
• A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
• Horses that have lost previously in the race don’t fare well
• Trainer Willie Mullins has only won the race twice
• Avoid front runners
• The Irish are have won the race just three times since 1995
• Avoid horses that were beaten in the race before
• Previous Albert Bartlett winners have an overall poor record (1 from 16)
• Horses wearing headgear are 0 from 67
• Horses aged 10 or older have all been beaten since 1986 (0 from 55)

This race is quite simple really – you are either with PAISLEY PARK, or not! As you can see by the fact I’ve bolded his name up – I’m firmly in his camp. Yes, this season he’s maybe not quite set the world alight in the manner of his wins at Newbury and Cheltenham but has now won his last seven on the spin and has taken all the main trials ahead of this race. He’s still only 8 years-old and with connections taking their time with him this season will be cherry-ripe for his defence bid. If you are against him, then you will probably be siding with Summerville Boy, who was only 1 ¼ lengths behind Paisley Park in the Cleeve Hurdle here in January. He’s a decent horse and has improved again since being stepped up in trip. He’s got a good record at the track and should give the hot-pot a real race. He is still rated 13lbs inferior to Paisley though so based on that would have to find a bit more. The other improve in the race could be Emitom, from the Warren Greatrex yard that won this in 2015 with Cole Harden. He’s 22lbs behind the favourite in the ratings but is rapidly improving and took another step forward last time when winning well at Haydock.

16:10 Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate   2m 5f

2019 Winner: SIRUH DU LAC (9/2)
Trainer – Nick Williams
Jockey – Lizzie Kelly

Pluses….

• 27 of the last 32 winners were officially rated 141 or less
• 10 of the last 11 winners carried under 11-0
• Look out for French-breds
• 10 of the last 16 winners had won a race in Feb or March
• Venetia Williams & Pipe-trained runners should be noted
• The Pipe yard have won 7 of the last 22 runnings
• 16 of the last 19 winners returned at double-figure odds
• 20 of the last 28 winners had run at the Festival before (but 7 of last 9 were having Festival debut)
• 19 of the last 20 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
• 7 of the last 10 winners had 9 or less chase runs
• 17 of the last 20 winners came from outside the top 4 in the market

Negatives….

• Avoid horses that are yet to win at Class 3 or better
• The Irish have only sent out 4 winners since 1951
• 2 winning favourites in the last 14 years
• Only 3 of last 25 won with 11st+
• Winners of a chase at Cheltenham before have an overall poor record, but the 2019 winner did defy this trend.
• Only 2 of the last 16 winners hadn’t run that calendar year

This has been a kind race to the Venetia Williams yard in recent years and they could have another good chance this time with BELAMI DES PICTONS (e/w). This 9 year-old has been poor this season so far but as a result has dropped to a fair mark and is now only 2lbs higher than when last winning. The fact he’s been going off fairly short in the betting the last twice suggests connections feel he’s not far of finding his form again and he ran well to be fourth here at the track in November in the BetVictor Gold Cup – he’s now 6lbs lower than that run! CD winner, Simply The Betts is another to note, but is up another 9lbs for his last win here and that means more is needed. It’s a race the Irish have won three times in the last four years too, plus if the David Pipe yard run anything then this should be respected too – they’ve won the race three times since 2010. At this stage they’ve got Poker Play and last year’s fourth – EAMON AN CNOIC (e/w) in the race. We’ll have to see if they get into the race, but if last year’s fourth does then he has to be one for the shortlist. He’s a pound lower than 12 months ago and was only beaten 3 ½ lengths. If the ground turns up soft that’s fine too and he also ran well here in December (2^nd) over 2m. The final one of interest is the Alan King-trained DEYRANN DE CARJAC (e/w). This 7 year-old beat Pym back in November at Huntingdon and has since backed that up with solid runs in better races. He ran Champ to 6 lengths at Newbury and then was a close third in the Dipper Novices Chase here on New Year’s Day. Yes, his lack of experience over fences (4 runs) is a slight worry, but that also means he’s got scope for improvement and overall his jumping so far has been good.

16:50 Dawn Run Mares’ Novices Hurdle 2m1f

2019 Winner: EGLANTINE DU SEUIL 50/1
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Noel Fehily

• A new race (Just four renewals)
• Favourites have won 3 of the four runnings
• 3 of the last 4 winners won last time out 3 of the 4 winners were French-bred
• 3 of the 4 winners were unbeaten that season
• Sullivan Bloodstock owners have won 2 of the 4 runnings (just 3 runners)
• All four winners have been aged 5 years-old
• Willie Mullins won the race in 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019
• Owner Rich Ricci has won 2 of the last 4 runnings

Only four past runnings of this race and so far, the Willie Mullins camp have won them all, including last year with a 50/1 shot! At this stage Mullins has several entered – Colreevy, Dolcita, Concertista, Yukon Lil & Hook Up, so anything they run has to be noted. However, all the talk this year has been about another Irish raider though in Minella Melody. This 6 year-old is 3-from-3 over hurdles so far and looks a mare that could go to the very top. She beat the Mullins runner – Colreevy – by 2 ½ lengths last time at Fairyhouse and looks a good thing to confirm that form. However, the one that might upset the Irish domination in this race is the Nicky Henderson runner – FLORESSA (e/w). She ran okay behind Lady Buttons last time at Doncaster but that run came off a 2-month break and the word is that she’s improved a lot for it. Prior to that run was a Listed winner at Newbury and with only four runs over hurdles I feel we’ve not seen the best of her just yet.

17:30 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase   3m 1½f

2019 Winner: ANY SECOND NOW (6/1)
Trainer – Ted Walsh
Jockey – Mr Derek O’Connor

Pluses….

• Respect 8 and 9 year-olds
• 9 of the last 12 winners failed to win earlier that season
• 3 of the last 9 winners ran in the BetVictor Handicap Chase (Open Meeting)
• The last 8 winners ran off a mark of 137 or more
• 7 of the last 10 winners returned 9/1 or shorter (top three in the betting)
• 8 of the last 10 winners carried 11st 5lbs+
  8 of the last 11 winners ran in February
• Look for McCain, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners
• Look for horses in the top half of the handicap
• 18 of the last 20 winners ran over at least three miles in their last race
• Look for non-claiming amateur riders
• 8 of the last 9 winners wore headgear
• 9 of the last 11 winners came from the top 6 in the market
• Jockey Jamie Codd has ridden 4 of the last 11 winners
• Jockey Derek O’Connor 2^nd 3 times and 1^st in 2019
  Owner JP McManus often does well in the race

Negatives….

• Just three Irish winners for 36 years (but have won 3 of the last 6)
• Horses that fell or unseated that season have a poor record
• Avoid Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s just 1 placed horse from his last 21
• Trainer Willie Mullins has a poor record in the race
• Horses carrying less than 10-10 have a poor record
• French breds are 0 from 59 since 2005
• Avoid claiming jockeys – 1 from 89 since 2009
• Just 1 of the last 17 winners won last time out

The first thing to note here is that Willie Mullins doesn’t have a great record in this race – come to think of it, nor does Paul Nicholls. Add in that the Irish have also only landed 3 of the last 36 winners, but it’s worth noting this trend might be turning around as those three successes actually came in the last six years. Being a race for the amateurs then jockey booking are again key. The likes of Jamie Codd, who has won the race 4 times in the last 11 years, and Derek O’Connor will be the top main players. I feel Codd will ride RAVENHILL (e/w), while there is a word that O’Conner will get the leg-up on Champagne Platinum. The former fell last time out at Navan so that’s not ideal preparation – and horses that have hit the before that season don’t have the best of records. However, that came back in November, so the Elliott yard have given him plenty of time and I’m happy to stick with him. Champagne Platinum dons the JP McManus silks and this popular owner is another to note in this race – he’s won it three times in the last 8 years, including 12 months ago. Champagne was a solid third to Itchy Feet at Sandown last time out so if that horse goes well in the Marsh Novices Chase (1^st race) we can expect this one to be even more popular. The only niggle is that he’s yet to win a race over fences (3 runs). JP could easily have several runners in the race though, so don’t forget to look at all the runners carrying his famous green and gold silks. The other of interest though is the Hobbs runner – DEISE ABA. This 7 year-old caught the eye when winning at Sandown last time out and despite a 7lb rise for that looks a staying chaser on the up. He’s unbeaten this year over fences (2-from-2) and should improve further for the slight step up in trip. Of the rest, last year’s runner-up Kilflum Cross has to enter the mix – his a rated a pound lower and comes here off the back of a solid second at Kempton – he should be spot-on for another crack. Others to note, if running, are No Comment, who was fifth last year, and the Henry De Bromhead runner Plan Of Attack.

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