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Glorious Goodwood Trends & Tips: DAY THREE (Thurs 1st Aug 2019)

It’s panama hats, pimms, plus strawberries and cream galore with the 5-day Glorious Goodwood Meeting (Tues 30th July to Sat 3rd Aug). As always, the West Sussex track can expect monster crowds throughout the week with a whole host of top-notch contests each day for punters to get stuck into.

So we’ll be on-hand throughout the whole meeting to take you through the key trends for each day’s LIVE ITV races.

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2019 Glorious Goodwood Trends

DAY TWO – Wednesday 31st July 2019

1.50 – Unibet Handicap Cl2 1m2f ITV

15/16 – Had won between 1-3 times before
15/16 – Winning distance – 1 ¾ lengths or less
15/16 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
14/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Rated between 91-99
12/16 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
11/16 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
11/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/16 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
9/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/16 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
6/16 – Had raced at Goodwood before
6/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Trained by Mark Johnston (3 of last 6 runnings)
5/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Trained by John Gosden
3/16 – Ridden by Martin Dwyer
2/16 – Ridden by William Buick
No winner from stall 1 in the last 13 runnings
Stall 14 has been placed in 5 of the last 13 runnings
9 of the last 13 winners came from stall 11 or lower
6 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 4-7 (inc)
Communique (7/2 fav) won the race 12 months ago

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: A tough race to open up with on day three, but it’s a contest the John Gosden and Mark Johnston yards have done very well in – winning 8 of the last 16 between them. With that in mind, I’m going to keep this simple and just stick with their three runners. Gosden has the consistent FOREST OF DEAN in the race and he heads here off the back of a solid fourth (of 15) at Newbury last time. He gets in off the same mark here, but in this slightly better race only has 8-4 to carry in weight. Johnston has two – THE TRADER and VICTORY COMMAND. The former needs to bounce back from a below-par run at HQ last time out but his form prior to that was solid enough to give him another chance. He’s another that gets in with a light weight and should be a lot fitter for that last run as it came off a slight break. Victory Command was last seen running fifth at Newmarket but is a pound lower here and after getting outpaced that day the step back up in trip looks worth another crack. Of the rest, the Ryan Moore-ridden Walkinthesand and the William Haggas-trained Dalaalaat have to be respected as the only two previous winners in the race, while Sinjaari and Korcho certainly have the form to go well, but I’m happy to stick with two yards that have targeted this race with a lot of success in recent years.

2.25 – Qatar Richmond Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 6f ITV

16/17 – Had won 1 or 2 races before
16/17 – Had won over 5 or 6f before
15/17 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
14/17 – Never raced at Goodwood before
14/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Placed last time out
12/17 – Won by a Feb or March foal
12/17 – Won their previous race
8/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
7/17 – Winning favourites
6/17 – Trained by Richard Hannon (inc last 6 of last 9 runnings)
2/17 – Trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam
3 of the last 13 winners came from stall 2
9 of the last 13 horses from stall 2 finished in the top 3
3 of the last 13 winners came from stall 6
11 of the last 13 winners came from stall 2-7 (inc)
King Of Yulong (5/2 fav) won the race 12 months ago

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Course and distance winner – Guildsman – can make it’s presence felt, while Dream Shot is another course winner in the field that could go well at a nice price. Frankie catches the eye riding Maxi Boy for Michael Bell and is sure to be popular, while Golden Horde and Symbolize have shown a good level of form from their limited races to date. However, the clear form pick here is the Richard Hannon runner – THREAT. The yard also has a top record in this race – winning it in 6 of the last 9 years – and his recent second in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot makes him the one to beat. He was only beaten ½ a length that day behind a useful-looking O’Brien runner (Arizona) and with the expected improvement is the one the others have to aim at based on that run. Of the rest, O’Brien runs Royal Dornoch and King Neptune so will have an angle in on the selection. Of that pair, the last-named looks their better chance, so it might be worth having a small play on KING OF NEPTUNE (e/w) too – the yard also took this prize 12 months ago.

3.00 – Qatar Gordon Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f ITV

16/16 – Won between 1-3 times before
15/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/16 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
12/16 – Placed favourites
12/16 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
12/16 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/16 – Winning distance – neck or shorter
8/16 – Went onto run in the St Leger
7/16 – Won last time out
7/16 – Winning favourites
7/16 – Raced at Ascot last time out
6/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
4/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/16 – Went onto win the St Leger
10 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 4-10 (inc)
The horse from stall 7 has won 4 of the last 12 runnings
Horses from stalls 4,7 & 10 have won 8 of the last 12 runnings
Cross Counter (7/4) won the race 12 months ago

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: This has been a fair St Leger trial in recent years so the winner – or those that ran well in the race – are worth keeping an eye on for that final Classic in September. Constantinople, Jalmoud and Spanish Mission are all rated 110 so there shouldn’t be a lot between them, but with the Godolphin runner Jalmoud getting 3lbs from the other two then he does have a slight advantage and the boys in blue also took this prize last year. Floating Artist is a proven CD winner so can’t be ruled out either, while the unbeaten Jessie Harrington runner – Leo De Furycan’t be underestimated. However, I’m going to take a chance on NAYEF ROAD (e/w) and DAL HORRISGLE (e/w) here – two horses that look some value against the main three in the race. Nayef Road was well supported last time out at HQ and even though he’s got 4 lengths to find with Spanish Mission on that form, the softer ground here and slight drop in trip will help. He kept on well and had over 3 lengths to spare over the third which still suggests it was a good effort. Dal Horrisgle comes here having won his last two and even though this is a big step up in grade it was hard to not be impressed with the latest of those wins at Haydock. He’s up from 1m2f to 1m4f here and with just three career runs looks one of those in the field that should have more improvement to come.

3.35 – Qatar Nassau Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m1f192y ITV

15/15 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the market
14/15 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
13/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/15 – Aged either 3 or 4 years-old
12/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
11/15 – Winning Favourites
11/15 – Had won a Group One race previously
11/15 – Won between 2-4 times before
9/15 – Had won over 1m2f previously
4/15 – Won by the Aidan O’Brien yard
3/15 – Ridden by Tom Queally
3/15 – Trained by John Gosden
2/15 – Won by the Sir Michael Stoute yard
Wild Illusion (4/1) won the race 12 months ago
10 of the last 13 winners were drawn 7 or lower
Stalls 1, 6 and 7 have won 9 of the last 13 renewals

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: A top Group One to end the LIVE action on day three. It’s a contest that’s been dominated by the Stoute, Gosden and O’Brien yards in recent times and it looks like being more of the same again this year. Stoute has two live chances in Sun Maiden and Rawdaa – both look to be equally matched, but having won her last two- Sun Maiden – probably just edges it. She’s won Listed and Group 3 races this season so will need to step up again here but deserves to take her chance – she might just come up short though. French raider – Channel – has won it’s last three and is weighted to go close too. Any rain will be a plus and her Group One victory of last time proves she’s up to this level and should be bang-there. Gosden runs MEHDAAYIH, who was a very impressive winner of the Cheshire Oaks back in May. She failed to build on that in the Epsom Oaks next time, but bounced back to form to win a Group Two over in France (1m4f) last time. She gets 8lbs from the older horses and a certain Frankie Dettori is the icing on the cake. Any rain would be a big plus ahead of her chance and if it comes might be worth chancing against the likely favourite – Hermosa. This O’Brien runner won the Irish 1,000 Guineas very easily back in May and wasn’t disgraced when second in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. This will be her first try over 1m2f, but breeding suggests it will suit and if that’s the case this top-rated runner in the field looks very dangerous. Of the rest, MAQSAD, who was 8th in the Epsom Oaks, can go well now back in trip as clearly didn’t stay last time and has been given 2 months to get over that outing – she might be worth a small interest too.

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