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Glorious Goodwood Trends & Tips: DAY FOUR (Fri 2nd Aug 2019)

It’s panama hats, pimms, plus strawberries and cream galore with the 5-day Glorious Goodwood Meeting (Tues 30th July to Sat 3rd Aug). As always, the West Sussex track can expect monster crowds throughout the week with a whole host of top-notch contests each day for punters to get stuck into.

So we’ll be on-hand throughout the whole meeting to take you through the key trends for each day’s LIVE ITV races.

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2019 Glorious Goodwood Trends

DAY FOUR – Friday 2nd Aug 2019

1.50 – Theo Fennell Oak Tree Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 7f

10/10 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/10 – Didn’t win last time out
10/10 – Won between 2-4 times before
9/10 – Won over at least 7f before
8/10 – Officially rated 100+
7/10 – Irish-bred
7/10 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
7/10 – Returned 7/1 or bigger in the betting
4/10 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/10 – French-trained winners (3 of the last 4)
3/10 – Had won at the track before
2/10 – Winning favourites
Pretty Baby (3/1 fav) won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/1

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Last season’s 1,000 Guineas winner – Billesdon Brook – has bounced back to form in the last few months and is also a proven CD winner here at Goodwood – she can go well. We’ve also got last year’s winner of this race – Pretty Babytrying to follow-up. She beat another of today’s runners – Perfection – by a head at Lingfield back in May, so is closely-matched with that runner, but does need to return from a poor run in the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. That race did, however, come over 1m and she clearly didn’t stay, so the drop back to 7f looks a good move. It’s hard to fault her chance too. Dan’s Dream and Beyond Reason are others to note, while the consistent Angel’s Hideaway is weighted to go close, but just doesn’t win enough for me. So, the one I’m interested in is the Sir Michael Stoute-trained JUBILOSO. This exciting filly has only raced three times, so will have more to come and was last seen running a blinder in the Group One Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. This drop back from G1 to G3 company will make life easier and being a 3 year-old she gets a handy 6lbs allowance from the older runners. Ryan Moore riding is the icing on the cake.

2.25 – Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m ITV

16/17 – Had won over 7f or 1m before
14/17 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
13/17 – Had not won a Group 3 or better before
12/17 – Had won at least twice during their career
12/17 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/17 – Ran at either Newbury (2), Goodwood (2) or Newmarket (4) last time out
5/17 – Had run at Goodwood before
5/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by Richard Hannon
3/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/17 – Trained by Brian Meehan
2/17 – Trained by Mark Johnston
Regal Reality (10/1) won the race 12 months ago
6 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 1-3 (inc)
11 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 1-6 (inc)

Note: 2012 was a dead-heat

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: A case can be made for several of these. Recent winners, Duke Of Hazzard, Turjomaan, Art Du Val and Biometric head here in good form and can go well, while the likes of Momkin and the O’Brien-trained Old Glory both ran well last time to suggest they can’t be discounted either. However, the one I like is the Charlie Fellowes-trained KING OTTOKAR (e/w). This one-time Derby hope catches the eye dropped back to a mile after not staying the 1m4f Chester Vase trip and then running well over 1m2f last time in the Hampton Court Stakes. Any rain would be a plus and the fact he does stay a bit further than this 1m distance will suggest connections will make full use of this proven stamina. The in-form Tom Maquand rides too, so everything looks in place for a big run – oh, and the yard are 2-from-5 with their 3 year-olds at the track. Of the rest at bigger prices, the Roger Varian runner – FIFTH POSTION (e/w) – might also be worth a small interest with the drop back in trip looking a plus. He’s not quite got home over further recently so the return to a mile will help, but the form of his recent fifth to Elarqam still looks solid with that one landing York Stakes last weekend.


3.00 –
Unibet Golden Mile (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

16/17 – Aged 6 or younger
16/17 – Had won over at least 1m before
15/17 – Had raced 3 or more times that season
14/17 – Had won 3 or more races during their career
11/17 – Never raced at Goodwood before
11/17 –Priced 7/1 or shorter
10/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/17 – Carried 8-13 or less
8/17 – Unplaced favourites
8/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
6/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Won their last race
3/17 – Trained by Mark Johnston
12 of the last 14 winners were drawn 9 or lower
12 of the last 14 runnings saw the first two both drawn in 11 or lower
Seniority (9/2 jfav) won the race 12 months ago

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: 22 runners here, so not an easy race to unravel. However, with 12 of the last 14 winners drawn 9 or lower, then this at least helps us narrow down the runners. Those drawn 1-9 here are GAME PLAYER, WHAT’S THE STORY, BEAT LE BON, WAR GLORY, POGO, BALTIC BARON, ZHUI FENG, ORIGINAL CHOICE and MOJITO. We’ve also got last year’s winner in the race – Seniority – and with Ryan Moore booked to ride the Queen’s runner for William Haggas then he can go well too from draw 11. He’s only 3lbs higher than last year’s win and Ryan Moore rode him last season in this race too. The Haggas team also run MOJITO here though and with a top draw in 9, this one gets the nod. Yes, Frankie seemed to get things a bit his own way in that last win at Sandown and with that success also coming off a 637 break then the dreaded ‘bounce-factor’ comes into play. However, he’s had 4 weeks to get over it and is only up 3lbs. The second – Escobar – has since franked the form too by winning next time out – he looks the sort that can progress out of handicap company. Of the rest, the Gary Moore runner – Gossiping – seems to save his best for this track and heads here on a 4-timer so must enter the mix. But of those at bigger prices, it might also be worth having small interests in WHAT’S THE STORY (e/w) and BEAT LE BON (e/w). Both are well-drawn in low stalls and also head here off the back of solid recent runs. The later is also a course winner at the track and could have more improvement to come now back up in trip.

 

3.35 – Qatar King George Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 5f ITV –

17/17 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
16/17 – Had won over 5f before
14/17 – Didn’t win last time out
13/17 – Had won 4 or more times in their careers
12/17 – Had 3 or more runs already that season
12/17 – Ran at York, Ascot or Newmarket last time out
11/17 – Placed favourites
10/17 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
7/17 – Had run at Goodwood before
6/17 – Had only won at Listed Class before
6/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by the Hills yard
2/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/17 – Trained by William Haggas
2/17 – Trained by Bryan Smart
Battaash (8/11) won the race in 2018
9 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 8 or lower
Horses from stall 4 and 8 have won 4 of the last 12 runnings

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Copper Knight and El Astronaute are having good seasons again and can both make bold bids, but really it will be a big shock if the horse they call ‘Batman’ can’t take this for a season year. BATTAASH is rated 123 and that’s the clear top-rated in the field – he’s got 12lbs in hand on his nearest rival – El Astronaute so that horse will either need to improve a lot, or the hot favourite will need to have a big ‘off-day’. We know the track suits Battaash, having won at Goodwood twice before, and he’s shown he’s returned this season better than ever after winning the Temple Stakes at Haydock and then running second at Ascot in the King’s Stand Stakes. Of those at bigger prices, Rebecca Rocks and Rumble Inthejungle, who are both course and distance winners, could easily sneak into the frame.

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