Glorious Goodwood Trends & Free Tips: DAY FIVE (Sat 3rd Aug 2019)

It’s panama hats, pimms, plus strawberries and cream galore with the 5-day Glorious Goodwood Meeting (Tues 30th July to Sat 3rd Aug). As always, the West Sussex track can expect monster crowds throughout the week with a whole host of top-notch contests each day for punters to get stuck into.

So we’ll be on-hand throughout the whole meeting to take you through the key trends for each day’s LIVE ITV races.

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2019 Glorious Goodwood Trends

DAY FIVE – Saturday 3rd August 2019

1.50 – Qatar Stewards’ Sprint Stakes Handicap (Consolation Race for the Qatar Stewards’ Cup) (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f

15/15 – Didn’t win their last race
13/15 – Raced at Goodwood previously
14/15 – Had won over 6f previously
11/15 – Won at least 3 times during their career
12/15 – Had 4 or more runs that season
11/15 – Finished 4^th or worse in their last race
11/15 – Favourites unplaced
9/15 – Priced between 8/1 and 12/1 in the market
7/15 – Winning Distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
8/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
7/15 – Raced at either York (3) or Newmarket (4) last time out
3/15 – Trained by Clive Cox
3/15 – Favourites (one in the last 13 years)
1/15 – 3 year-old winners
Tommy G (10/1) won the race 12 months ago
12 of the last 13 winners carried 9-0 or more
9 of the last 13 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-5
No winner from stall 1 in the last 13 runnings
Horses from stall 3 has won 2 of the last 10 runnings

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: 24 runners so not a race to go too mad in. Some decent stats though, starting with ALL of the last 15 winners coming here having NOT won last time out – in fact, 12 of the last 15 winners finished 4^th or worse last time out. This means the likes of Tinto, Secretinthepark, Get The Rhythm and Boy In The Bar will have this stat against him. Having previous track form is another plus, so it might be worth sticking with last year’s winner of the race – TOMMY G (e/w). Yes, he’s not won since but as a result has dropped to a nice mark and is now 3lbs lower than 12 months ago. Silvestre De Sousa has been booked to ride and draw 20 means he can hopefully bag one of the rails. However, with 12 of the last 13 winners carrying 9-0 or more in weight then I’ll also have a few of those at the top of the card on my side. Dark Shot ran poorly here in the week, but is better than that and can easily bounce back, while Poyle Vinnie (2^nd), Mokaatil (3^rd) & Duke Of Firenze (4^th) also ran in that race on Tuesday and can go well again. The consistent PUDS is a past course winner too and his overall form at the track is impressive – 5-1-2-2. He acts on any ground and has been freshened-up with 2 months off, with this race looking a form target all season.

2.25 – The Qatar Summer Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m6f ITV

15/16 – Had won at least twice before
13/16 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
14/16 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
13/16 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
10/16 – Carried 9-7 or more
9/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Rated between 90-100
9/16 – Placed favourites
8/16 – Came from the top three in the betting
4/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/16 – Trained by Mark Johnston
3/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
No winner from stall 1 in the last 13 runnings
Horses from stalls 12, 13 & 14 have good e/w records in recent years
7 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 10-14 (inc)
Sir Chauvelin (12/1) won the race 12 months ago

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: This has been a top race for the Mark Johnston yard in recent years – winning 4 of the last 16 runnings. With that in mind, their proven course and distance winner – KING’S ADVICE. This improving 5 year-old has won 7 of his last 8 races, including last time out at Newmarket. His only recent blip came when tried over further, but this 1m6f looks ideal and the fact he’s handled the tricky Goodwood track in the past is a further plus. Yes, he’s up 7lbs from that last win, but did it nicely and it all points to another big run – he’s the one to beat for me. He had the likes of Desert Skyline, Outbox and What A Welcome in behind that day and really despite weight pulls, it’s hard to not see him upholding that form. Johnston also runs Charles Kingsley and with Frankie Dettori booked to ride then he can’t be ruled out either. He was a good winner at HQ last time as well and a 3lb rise for that looks more than fair. Corgi, who ran a blinder to be fourth at Ascot in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes and on that effort is another to consider. He is up in trip here from 1m4f, so would need to prove his stamina, having been beaten the only time he’s tried 1m6f. Of the rest, PROSCHEMA (e/w) is worth a small interest too. He was travelling all over the winner last time out at Newbury and must have traded very short in-running. He fell in a bit of a hole though over that 2m trip, so the drop back to 1m6f looks a good move and he can go well too off the same mark.

3.00 – Qatar Lillie Langtry Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m6f ITV

14/16 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
13/16 – Had raced 2 or more times already that season
12/16 – Finished in the top three last time out
12/16 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/16 – Had run at Goodwood before
9/16 – Unplaced favourites
8/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Ridden by Tom Queally
8 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 4-6 (inc)
Pilaster (11/4) won the race 12 months ago

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Only seven runners, with Aidan O’Brien responsible for three of them – Peach Tree, South Sea Pearl and Flowering Peach. All three look to have outsider squeaks and being 3 year-olds all get handy weight allowances from the older horses. However, the O’Brien trio don’t look to be their superstars so the other four runners in the race look the ones to focus on – Enbihaar, Dramatic Queen, Manuela De Vega and last year’s winner Pilaster. Of that bunch, Manuela De Vega, who was fourth in the Epsom Oaks and then 5^th in the Irish, version brings good form to the table. She gets 11lbs off the older horses too so on the ratings that makes her the one to beat. The step up in trip looks sure to suit, but is, however, still an unknown. Old rivals – Enbihaar and Dramatic Queen – clash again too. The pair were separated by just a neck at Haydock last time out, but prior to that Dramatic Queen beat Enbihaar over this 1m6f trip – they really are going to hard to split again here. However, the fly in the ointment can be last year’s winner – PILASTER (e/w). This Roger Varian runner is the only proven CD winner in the field and has been running with credit this season. Yes, she’s got a bit of ground to make up with Enibihaar and Dramatic Queen but the return to Goodwood is a plus, while he’ll head here fresher too after 2 months off. Of the O’Brien trio I might also have a play on SOUTH SEA PEARL (e/w), who has at least won over this trip and comes into the race in form after an easy Listed win at Leopardstown.

3.40 – Unibet Cup (Stewards´ Cup) (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV

16/16 – Had won over 6f before
15/16 – Aged 6 or younger
15/16 – Had at least 3 previous career wins to their name
15/16 – Had 3 or more previous runs that season
12/16 – Raced at either Ascot, York or Newmarket last time out
11/16 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
10/16 – Placed favourites (top 4)
10/16 – Carried 9-1 or less
9/16 – Raced at Goodwood before
8/16 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
5/16 – Favourites (1 joint, 1 co)
2/16 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/16 – Trained by William Haggas
2/16 – Winning 3 year-olds
Gifted Master (10/1) won the race 12 months ago
11 of the last 14 winners came from a double-figure draw

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Another tough renewal of this competitive handicap, with 28 runners!! 15 of the last 16 winners were aged 6 or younger though so that at least rules out some – George Bowen, Sir Maximilian & Growl. With 11 of the last 14 winners also coming from a double-figure draw then those drawn low might be best overlooked. 4 and 5 year-olds have the best recent record too – winning 11 of the last 16 – those that fit the bill here are – Flavius Titus, Justanotherbottle, Kimifive, Open Wide, Summerghand, Air Raid, Arecibo, Gulliver, Vanbrugh, Alijady, Buridan, Embour, Solidier’s Minute. El Hombre, Hyperfocus, Lake Volta and Stone Of Destiny. Of that lot, Frankie Dettori booked to ride the David O’Meara-trained ARECIBO (e/w) catches the eye. This 4 year-old gets in with just 9-0 in weight and seems equally as effective over 5f and this 6f. Goodwood is a speed track so that will help him too and he’ll have no better pilot than Frankie in the saddle. Growl is certainly looking well-handicapped on old form but does need to bounce back, while the likes of Cosmic Law, Justanotherbottle and the consistent Spanish City are others to respect. However, the other one I’ll take a chance on is the Amanda Perrett runner – OPEN WIDE (e/w). The yard love to have winners at one of their local tracks and this 5 year-old ticks a lot of the main trends. He comes here off the back of three top runs at Windsor, Ascot and Windsor, plus gets in here off the same mark. Baron Bolt, who sports the first-time visor, is another course and distance winner to respect. While Raucous can’t be ruled out with Cieren Fallon claiming 5lbs and is another that has good form at the course and Khaadem has only had six career runs and should have a lot more to give.

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