York Ebor Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Thurs 22nd Aug 2019)

The York Ebor Festival continues on Thursday 22nd August 2019, as the four-day meeting heads into it’s second day.

Four more LIVE ITV races to take in, including the Group Two Lowther Stakes, plus the Group One Darley Yorkshire Oaks – did you know that ALL of the last 18 Yorkshire Oaks were aged 3 or 4 years-old, while 17 of the last 18 winners came from stalls 4 or higher

As always, we’ll be on-hand throughout the whole meeting to take you through the key trends for each day’s LIVE ITV races.

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DAY TWO – Thursday 22nd August 2019

1.55 – Skybet Lowther Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) Cl1 6f ITV

16/17 – Had won over 5 or 6f before
16/17 – Had won at least once before
15/17 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
15/17 – Had not run at York before
15/17 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
14/17 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
12/17 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
12/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/17 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/17 – Trained by William Haggas
Fairyland (6/4 fav) won the race in 2018

Note: 2008 renewal was run at Newmarket

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Some very promising sorts on show here, but really it’s hard to get away from the speedy LIBERTY BEACH. This John Quinn-trained juvenile has risen up the ranks this season after running fourth in the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot and then winning Listed and Group Three races at Goodwood. Those looking to take her on will look to this step up in trip to 6f (from 5f), but she’s certainly not been stopping in his races and really the better parts of this wins have been in the final quarter of his races. She’s got a very useful turn-of-foot and this weapon should see her being hard to beat again here. Of the rest, the main danger looks to be the unbeaten Under The Stars, who was a good winner of the Group Three Keenland Stakes last time out at Ascot over this trip. The Haggas runner – Wejdan – is another to note after winning well on debut at Newbury and is clearly thought good enough for this step up in grade. Irish raiders, Precious Moments and Celtic Beauty are others to consider, but I’ll take the Quinn filly to put her useful turn-of-foot to good use and complete her three-timer.

2.25 – Goffs Premier Yearling Stakes (CLASS 2) (2yo) 6f ITV

17/17 – Had 2 or more career runs
16/17 – Winning distance 2 lengths or less
17/17 – Had 1 or 2 career wins to their name
16/17 – Foaled in Feb or later
12/17 – Won from stall 10 or higher
11/17 – Placed favourites
12/17 – Foaled in Feb or March
6/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by Brian Meehan
3/17 – Trained by William Haggas (inc 3 of last 6 winners)
2/17 – Trained by Tim Easterby
2/17 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
2/17 – Trained by Richard Hannon (2 of last 3 winners)
2/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
0/17 – Placed horses from stall 1
Red Balloons (33/1) won the race in 2018

Note: 2008 renewal was run at Newmarket
2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 renewals were run at Doncaster

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Another race for the 2 year-olds here and a contest the likes of Brian Meehan (Top Buck), William Haggas (St Ives), Kevin Ryan (Barbarella), Richard Fahey (Three Coins, Spygate, National League, Corndavon and Show Me Show Me) and Richard Hannon (Mums Tipple & Cheat) have done well in recently. The Fahey camp took the honours last year too and with five runners then they should all be respected. All of the last 17 winners had raced at least twice so that’s a negative for the likes of Mums Tipple, with Ryan Moore riding, Klopp Of The Kop and Love Destiny. Horses from stall one have struggled in recent years too – Barbarella will be looking to defy that stat. Of the Fahey runners, SHOW ME SHOW ME looks their main one and has more experience than most with five runs already. His third to Liberty Beach at Goodwood last time might look even better if that horse wins the previous race too. He also ran on well over that 5f trip last time to suggest this step up to 6f will be a big plus and looks sure to be in the mix. The Joseph O’Brien runner – Latin Five – looks an interesting runner over from Ireland too, but does need to bounce back from a poor run last time. However, the other one that stands out is the Dettori-ridden PIECE OF PARADISE. This Irish raider was a good winner on soft ground at Tipperary last time out and looks the sort to do better over 6f. Draw 12 is fine and with three runs she’s a horse with a bit more experience than some and gets a handy 2lbs fillies’ allowance. Of those at a bigger price. I’d not be shocked if the Meehan runner – Top Buck – ran well.

3.00 – Clipper Logistics Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

15/16 – Had won 2 or more times before
14/16 – Winning distance of 2 lengths or less
13/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
13/16 – Returned 15/2 or bigger in the betting
11/16 – Ran at either Ascot (4), Sandown (2), Goodwood (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
11/16 – Won from stall 12 or lower
11/16 – Carried 9-0 or less
11/16 – Had 4 or more runs already that season
11/16 – Unplaced last time out
2/16 – Won by the Hills (Barry/Charlie) stable
1/16 – Winning favourites
Poet’s Society (20/1) won the race in 2018

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: With 13 of the last 16 winners aged 3 or 4 years-old then this is a decent stat building-up. Of the 20 runners, this is a plus for Qaysar, Blackheath, Petrus, Thrave, Crownthorpe, Wafy Arbalet, Baltic Baron, History Writer & Vale Of Kent. The latter will also be popular with Frankie Dettori booked to ride for Mark Johnston, but draw 20 might not be ideal – 11 of the last 16 winners came from stalls 12 or lower. This is a plus for QAYSAR (e/w), who heads here on a three-timer after wins at Newbury and Newmarket. He’s up 5lbs for that last win but I think the return to a mile looks a plus after dotting-up over this trip two runs back. James Doyle has been onboard for both those recent runs and remains in the plate. The David Barron runner – Kyron – will also be popular but does fall down on the age trend (5) and does look a tad short considering the competitive nature of the race. The other that make some appeal though is the Charles Hills runner – WAFY (e/w). This 4 year-old has been runner-up the last twice and draw 11 looks fine. The yard also have a good record in the race and Andrea Atzeni is a top jockey booking. Yes, he was 4 ½ lengths off Qaysar at Newbury last time but will have a 10lb pull for that. Via Serendipity, Petrus and the Godolphin runner Silver Line are others to consider.

3.35 – Darley Yorkshire Oaks (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) ITV

18/18 – Aged 3 (12) or 4 (6) years-old
17/18 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
17/18 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
16/18 – Had at least 3 previous wins to their name
15/18 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
15/18 – Placed favourites
14/18 – Priced 7/2 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Had 3 or more runs already that season
13/18 – Previous Group 1 winners
12/18 – Had won over 1m4f before
8/18 – Winning favourites
7/18 – Had run in that season’s Epsom Oaks (2 winners)
4/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (Won it 8 times in all)
2/18 – Trained by Jim Bolger
Sea Of Class (7/4 fav) won the race in 2018

Note: 2008 renewal was run at Newmarket

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Just the four runners for the Yorkshire Oaks and it will be a major shock if the 2017 winner – ENABLE – isn’t regaining her crown. This John Gosden high-class middle-distance performer has returned to the track better than ever this season after wins in the Eclipse and the King George so can take this before heading to France to defend her Arc crown. Frankie remains in the saddle and it should be win number 13 from her 14 starts. The O’Brien runner – Magical – looks the main threat, but Enable beat her in the Eclipse back in July and more of the same will be on the cards. It what is a straight battle between the O’Brien and Gosden yard the two other runners are also from those yards as another Gosden inmate – Lah Ti Dar and South Sea Pearl, for O’Brien, make up the four runners.

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