Saturday Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 21st Dec 2019

It’s the last Saturday action before Christmas Day, but with a bumper day ahead on Boxing Day (we’ll be covering that too) then there’s plenty to look forward to over the festive period.

We’ve decent cards at Ascot and Haydock first this Saturday to take in, with six races spread across the two venues. The Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot is their feature race. While at Haydock the Tommy Whittle Chase is always a decent spectacle that might give us a few clues ahead of the Grand National – did you know ALL of the last 12 Tommy Whittle Chase winners failed to win their last race?

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at RACING AHEAD with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

1.50 – Plymouth Gin Handicap Chase Cl2 2m3f ITV4

Only 4 previous runnings
Trainers Paul Nicholls, Ian Williams, Mr Medic and Harry Fry were past winners
No winning favourite in 4 runnings
3 of the last 4 winners carried 10-10 or more
All winners returned between 6/1 and 10/1
All winners aged between 4-7 years-old

2.25 – Marsh Hurdle (Registered as The Long Walk Hurdle) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m1f ITV4

17/17 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
17/17 – Winners that went onto compete in that season’s World Hurdle (6 won, 4 runners-up)
15/17 – Placed in the top three in their last race
14/17 – Favourites placed
14/17 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
12/17 – French-bred horse
12/17 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
12/17 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles previously
12/17 – Won over at least 3m (hurdles) previously
10/17 – Raced at Newbury last time out
10/17 – Won their last race
9/17 – Favourites that won
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/17 – Trained by Nick Williams
2/17 – Ridden by jockey Barry Geraghty
2/17 – Ridden by jockey Richard Johnson
2/17 – Ridden by jockey Tom Scudamore
Paisley Park won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 3/1

Note:
2009 and 2010 runnings – Newbury
2005 running – Chepstow
2004  running -Windsor

3.00 – Dave Dawes Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m ITV4

13/14 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
9/14 – Won over at least 3m (fences) previously
9/14 – Aged either 7 or 8 years-old
8/14 – Won by a French bred horse
8/14 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
8/14 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
8/14 – Raced at Ascot previously
7/14 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
7/14 – Favourites placed
6/14 – Won at least 5 times over fences before
5/14 – Ran at either Cheltenham (3) or Ascot (2) last time out
5/14 – Aged 7 years-old
5/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/14 – Favourites (1 joint)
2/14 – Trained by Henry Daly
2/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (last 2 runnings)
2/14 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty (2 of the last 5)
Regal Encore (20/1) won the race in 2016
The average winning SP in the last 8 renewals is 10/1
Note: The 2004 renewal was staged at Windsor

3.35 – Betfair Exchange Trophy Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m ITV4

16/16 – Aged between 4-7 years-old
16/16 – Had won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
15/16 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
13/16 – Had raced within the last 2 months
11/16 – Carried 10-10 or more
9/16 – Unplaced favourites
9/16 – Officially rated between 127 and 136
9/16 – Priced 12/1 or bigger in the betting
7/16 – Won by a horse aged 5 years-old
7/16 – Won last time out
7/16 – Irish bred
5/16 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
4/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/16 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/16 – Winning favourites
Mohaayed won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 12/1

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (Racing/ITV)

2.40 – Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase Cl2 3m ITV4

12/12 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
12/12 – Failed to win their last race
10/12 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
8/12 – Had raced at Haydock previously (hurdles or fences)
8/12 – Won over at least 3m before (hurdles or fences)
8/12 – Won between 2-3 times over fences previously
7/12 – Favourites placed
6/12 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or shorter
3/12 – Ridden by jockey Tom O’Brien
3/12 – French bred
3/12 – Went onto run in that season’s Aintree Grand National (all unplaced)
3/12 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
2/12 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
7 of the last 11 winners carried 11-0 or more
Daklondike won the race in 2018

3.15 – Sir Charles Napier Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m2f191y ITV

12/12 – Returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Aged 7 or younger
9/12 – Didn’t win last time out
9/12 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
8/12 – Placed favourites
8/12 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
8/12 – Had won 1-3 times over hurdles before
7/12 – Ran at either Newbury (2) or Haydock (5) last time out
7/12 – Had raced at Haydock before
6/12 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
5/12 – Finished 2^nd or 3^rd last time out
5/12 – Winning Favourites
4/12 – French bred
2/12 – Trained by Lucy Wadham
3 of the last 8 runnings were won by a claiming jockey
The average winning SP in the last 9 renewals is 4/1

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