Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 15th Feb 2020

With the equine flu situation now over, racing is back and it’s back with a bang!

With the ITV cameras covering some of last week’s lost races we’ve now 10 contests to take in from Ascot, Haydock, Wincanton and even  heading over to Ireland for the Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park.

So, to help narrow down the fields, and point you in the direction of a few winners, then we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle – we hope they help!

ASCOT HORSE RACING TRENDS (ATR/ITV)

1.50 – Sodexo Reynoldstown Novices´ Chase (An Ascot Appearance Money Scheme Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m7f180y ITV4

17/17 – Priced 17/2 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
15/17 – Had run within the last 7 weeks
14/17 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences previously
14/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/17 – Won last time out
10/17 – Irish bred
10/17 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
10/17 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s RSA Chase (2 winners)
9/17 – Winners that went onto finish 5^th or better in the RSA Chase
8/17 – Placed favourites
7/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/17 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/17 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill

Note: The 2005 & 2006 – Run at Lingfield Park

2.25 – Keltbray Swinley Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m7f180y ITV4

Only 9 previous runnings
9/9 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/9 – Finished 5^th or better last time out
8/9 – Aged 8 or older
7/9 – Won 1 or 2 chase races previously
7/9 – Raced at either Ascot (3) or Cheltenham (4) last time out
6/9 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
6/9 – Had raced at Ascot (fences) before
5/9 – Aged in double-figures
4/9 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
4/9 – Irish bred
4/9 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
3/9 – Winning distance head or shorter
2/9 – Won last time out
2/9 – Winning Favourites
5 of the last 7 winners carried 11-0 or more
Regal Encore won the race in 2018 and was third in 2019.

3.35 – Betfair Ascot Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m5f110y ITV4

17/17 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
16/17– Priced at 15/2 or shorter in the market
15/17 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
14/17 – Winners that didn’t win their next start
14/17 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
13/17 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
13/17 – Favourites placed
13/17 – Officially rated 157 or higher
11/17 – Priced 2/1 or shorter in the market
11/17 – Favourites that won
8/17 – Won between 1-4 times over fences previously
7/17 – Unplaced in their latest race
7/17 – Raced at Kempton (King George) last time out
6/17 – Won over fences at Ascot previously
6/17 – Won their last race
5/17 – Winners that ran in that season’s Ryanair Chase (1 winner, Cue Card) later that year
3/17 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/17 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/17 – Trained by Alan King
2/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
10 of the last 13 winners returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
Note: The 2005 & 2006 – Run at Lingfield Park
Waiting Patiently won this race in 2018, Cyrname won the race in 2019

HAYDOCK HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV4)

2.05 – Unibet Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m6f177y ITV4

16/17 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
13/17 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) previously
11/17 – Rated 145 or higher
11/17 – Placed favourites
11/17 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
11/17 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
10/17 – Aged 8 or younger
10/17 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
10/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/17 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
8/17 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s World Hurdle (no winners)
8/17 – Had run at Haydock before
6/17 – French-bred
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/17 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
1/17 – Winning favourites
1/17 – Winners that went onto win the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival

Note: The 2003, 2004, 2005 – Run at Kempton Park

3.15 – Unibet Grand National Trial (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f ITV4

17/17 – UK-based trained winners
17/17 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences (rules) before
15/17 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
14/17 – Finished in the top three last time out
14/17 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences (rules) before
14/17 – Aged 10 or younger
13/17 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
13/17 – Rated 135 or higher
12/17 – Aged 9 or younger
12/17 – Finished in the top two last time out
11/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
10/17 – Carried 11-0 or less
9/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/17 – Won last time out
8/17 – Unplaced favourites
7/17 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
7/17 – Irish-bred winners
4/17 – Winners that won by exactly 15 lengths
4/17 – Ran in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/17 – Won with 11-12 in weight
3/17 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/17 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
2/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Trained by Venetia Williams
4 of the last 5 winners returned 8/1 in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 10/1

WINCANTON HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV4)

2.12 Betway Heedyourhunch Handicap Chase 2m ITV4

Only 5 previous runnings
5/5 – Winners returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
4/5 – Aged 8 or younger
3/5 – Carried 10-5 or less in weight
3/5 – Winning favourites

2.45 – Betway Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 1m7f65y ITV4

16/16 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
15/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/16 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
14/16 – Had won at least 3 times over hurdles before
12/16 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle (1 winner Katchit)
12/16 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
10/16 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
9/16 – Rated 155 or higher
8/16 – Winning favourites
8/16 – Won last time out
6/16 – Raced at Sandown last time out
4/16 – Trained by Alan King
1/16 – Winners that went onto win the World Hurdle (Inglis Drever)

GOWRAN PARK TRENDS (ITV4)

2.30 – Red Mills Chase (Grade 2) 2m4f ITV4

11/11 – Had won over at least 2m4f (Chase) before
11/11 – Had won between 2-5 times over fences before
10/11 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
9/11 – Irish bred
8/11 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Aged 8 or younger
8/11 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
7/11 – Winning favourites
6/11 – Rated 150 or lower
4/11 – Raced at Thurles last time out
3/11 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/11 – Ridden by Paul Townend

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