Saturday Free Tips and Key Trends: 22nd Feb 2020

We’ve another busy afternoon in store with seven LIVE ITV races spread across three tracks – Kempton, Lingfield and Newcastle.

The 888Sport Handicap Chase tops the bill at Kempton, with four LIVE races at the Sunbury-On-Thames track, while the stayers are out again up at Newcastle for the gruelling Eider Chase that’s run over 4m1f. Then down at Lingfield the All Weather racing fans get their fix with a top-notch card that includes the Group 3 Winter Derby – a race that Gracious John took 12 months ago.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at RACING AHEAD with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

Kempton Park Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)

1.50 – 888Sport Pendil Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4

13/15 – French (8) of Irish (5) bred
12/15 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
12/15 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
11/15 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
11/15 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
10/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (won 7 of the last 10)
9/15 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
8/15 – Won last time out
8/15 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 13/8

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: To Follow……………….

2.25 – 888Sport Take ‘Em On Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

15/16 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 –  Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/16 – Had won no more than once over hurdles in the UK
12/16 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
12/16 – Winners that went onto run in the Triumph Hurdle (3 winners)
12/16 – Placed favourites
12/16 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
10/16– Won carrying either a 4lb or 7lb penalty
9/16 – Won last time out
8/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 – French bred
5/16 – Irish bred
4/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/16 – Trained by Alan King (won two of last 3 runnings)
4/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/16 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Triumph Hurdle
Zarkandar, Soldatino and Penzance went onto land that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: To Follow……………….

3.02 – Sky Bet Dovecote Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

13/14 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
13/14 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
12/14 – Had never raced over hurdles at Kempton before
11/14 – Won between 0-2 times over hurdles before
11/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/14 – Placed favourites
9/14 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
8/14 – Won last time out
6/14 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – French bred
4/14 – Trained by Alan King
4/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/14 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: To Follow……………….

3.35 – 888Sport Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m ITV4

15/17 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
14/17 – Aged 9 or younger
14/17 – Rated 139 or higher
12/17 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
11/17 – Won a class 2 chase or better before
11/17 – Carried 10-13 or more
11/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Came from the top 4 in the betting
11/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
11/17 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
10/17 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/17 – Rated between 139 and 150
8/17 – Carried 11-5 or more
7/17 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
7/17 – Won last time out
6/17 – Aged 8 years-old
5/17 – French bred
4/17 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
4/17 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/17 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
3/17 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner)
2/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/17 – Ridden by Richard Johnson (won it 5 times in all)
2/17 – Trained by Tom George
2/17 – Trained by Neil Mulholland (won 2 of the last 3)
2/17 – Trained by Philip Hobbs (won it 4 times in all)
2/17 – Ran in the King George VI Chase last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1

Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown Park

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: To Follow……………….

Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)

2.45 – Vertem Eider (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 4m1f ITV4

16/16 – Had won over at least 3m before
14/16 – Aged 10 or younger
13/16 – Carried 10-13 or more
13/16 – Priced 12/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
11/16 – Irish-bred
11/16 – Winners came from the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
11/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
10/16 – Officially rated between 131-140
10/16 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
8/16 – Placed favourites
5/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Won over 3m4f or further before
3/16 – Carried 11-12 in weight
2/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Irish-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 10/1

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: To Follow……………….

Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)

2.05 – Betway Hever Sprint Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f6y ITV4

12/13 – Rated 96+
11/13 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Had raced at Lingfield before
9/13 – Raced 6 weeks or longer ago
9/13 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
9/13 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/13 – Placed favs
8/13 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
4/13 – US bred
4/13 – Winning favourites
4/13 – Mare winners
3/13 – Trained by David Barron
0/13 – Winners from stall 1
Royal Birth won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: To Follow……………….

3.15 – Betway Winter Derby (All-Weather Championship Fast-Track Qualifier) (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f ITV4

16/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or shorter
14/17 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
13/17 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
13/17 – Had run at Lingfield previously
13/17 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
13/17 – Had raced at either Lingfield (8) or Kempton (4) last time out
12/17 – Winning distance – less than a length
11/17 – Placed in their last race
11/17 – Drawn in stall 7 or less
11/17 – Came from the top 3 in the market
11/17 – Won at Lingfield previously
11/17 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
10/17 – Won their last race
9/17 – Won at least 6 times previously
8/17 – Winning favourites
Just 2 of the last 14 Winter Derby Trial winners have gone onto win the Winter Derby
The average winning SP in the 17 renewals is 6/1

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: To Follow……………….

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