2020 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Weds 11th March 2020)

Each day of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at Racing Ahead will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival for you!

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DAY TWO: Wednesday 11th March 2020

13:30 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle   2m 5f

2019 Winner: CITY ISLAND 8/1
Trainer –Martin Brassil
Jockey – Mark Walsh

Pluses….

• 13 of the last 15 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
• 4 of the last 6 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
• 9 of the last 11 winners came from the top two-rated on BHA ratings
• 15 of the last 19 winners returned 17/2 or shorter
• 19 of the last 25 winners won last time out
• 24 of the last 25 winners finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
• The Irish have won 10 of the last 17 (5 of last 6)
• Horses rated 150+ do well
• The last 10 winners all won at least one bumper race
• All of the last 14 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
• In the last 9 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 15 of the 27 top 3 places
• 19 of the last 21 were NH bred
• 13 of the last 21 had won a graded race before
• Look for past Irish point-to-point winners (6 of the last 10 had won an Irish Point)
• Respect Willie Mullins – 4 winners and 7 placed in last 15 years

Negatives….

• Only one winner aged older than 6 has won since 1974
• Avoid 4 year-olds too – just one winner since 1991
• Horses aged 7 or older are 0 from 55 (since 1988)
• Only two of the last 34 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
• The last 17 Challow Hurdle winners have all been beaten
• Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all have been beaten. 0 from 30 in the last 14 years)

So, a lot will depend on whether ENVOI ALLEN runs here or in the Supreme on day one. If he comes here, then he’ll be all the rage and looks the one to be on after being three-from-three over hurdles and also the Champion Bumper winner of last year. Having said that, he’s a horse that’s not really set the world alight in the manner of how he’s winning races – a horse that seems to just have enough to get it done. Is that because he’s just not as good as we all think, or just his style of racing – some horses win all the time, but only do enough each time, rather than winning by 20 lengths! That said, if he does come here, I’m not sure this longer trip is what he wants – there was even talk of the Champion Hurdle at one point. Anyway, regardless I think the Hobbs horse – Sporting John – rates a big danger and can go close. He’s won all three of his hurdles runs to date and looks the sort to improve over this longer trip. He’s a big player, but I just question what he’s actually beaten so far. The Big Breakaway and The Big Getaway wold be a nice reverse forecast that I’m sure a lot of name-backers will do. But both have a squeak too and head here off the back of solid wins last time out. Proven CD winner Thyme Hill would be a big player if running here, but could go for Friday’s Albert Bartlett instead.  So, with some ifs and buts surrounding the race I’m going to take a chance on LONGHOUSE POET (e/w). This horse represents last year’s winning connections and having run well to be third in a Grade One at Leopardstown last time, that was a solid run. Yes, before that, he was third to Envoi Allen at Naas (beaten 7 lengths), but he’s a horse that’s only had 5 career runs and should have more to come. I feel that last run was another improved effort and after getting run out of it over 2m6f that day the drop back to 2m5f will help.

14:10 RSA Chase   3m ½f

2019 Winner: TOPOFTHEGAME 4/1
Trainer – Paul Nicholls
Jockey – Harry Cobden

Pluses….

• 4 of the last 11 winners ran in the Flogas Chase (Leopardstown, 4^th Feb) that season
• The last 18 winners had run in a Graded Novice Chase
• 23 of the last 25 winners had only one previous season over hurdles
• Respect 7 year-olds – won 11 of the last 13 (16 of last 20)
• 9 of the last 14 winners won last time out
• 7 of the last 10 winners were beaten on their chase debut
• 7 of the last 12 winners had won a bumper before
• 6 of the last 13 favourites won (50%)
• Every winner since 1997 had their chase debut the previous year
• Irish bred horses are 19 from the last 23
• 8 of the last 13 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase
• 6 of the last 11 winners were trained in Ireland
• Trainers Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls often do well in the race
• 22 of the last 27 were novice hurdling last season
• 4 of the last 10 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
• Look for horses that ran that same calendar year (51 of the last 53 winners had)
• 10 of the last 13 winners had raced at the Festival the previous year

Negatives….

• No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
• Just 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
• Avoid horses that had fallen before over fences
• Avoid horses that had had 2 full seasons over hurdles prior
• Just 2 of the last 20 winners had run less than 3 times over fences
• The last 21 winners of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Feltham, Kempton 26^th Dec) have lost
• Avoid unbeaten horses (only 2 of the last 20 winners)
• Mares are currently 0-from-11 in the race
• Horses in headgear are currently 0 from 29

The big question here is can Champ’s jumping hold up? This talented horse is basically a bit of a monkey and despite having loads of ability has made some terrible jumping errors, including when falling last time here at Cheltenham. The longer trip should help though as they should go a tad slower, but if you are backing him then you won’t know you’re going to really win until he jumps the last! He’s sure to still have his supporters though and I know a lot of good judges that have him as their banker of the meeting. Faugheen will also have its supporters – especially after his emotional win in Ireland last time out. This former Champion Hurdler is now 12 years-old and still loving his racing – if he wins this, you’ll probably not hear a bigger cheer all week! He beat Easy Game by just ½ a length last time, but you feel that was his big day and it looked a hard-fought win so can he recover in time for this? I’m not so sure – while he could even go for the Marsh Novices’ Chase over shorter (Thurs 1:30pm). The De Bromhead runner – Minella Indo – is very well regarded too but with just two runs over fences does lack experience. Allaho is another to note but can run a bit keen so getting home over this 3m trip would be a worry. So that leaves me with COPPERHEAD. This 6 year-old went into many a notebook after three recent wins over fences and the last of those at Ascot was very impressive – barring Faugheen he’s also the second top-rated in the field – 2lbs ahead of Champ. He’s a horse that could easily progress into a Gold Cup contender in the coming seasons and looks the safest option in a race that jumping, staying and having a bit of experience will be key.

14:50 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle   2m 5f

2019 Winner: WILLIAM HENRY (28/1)
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville

Pluses….

• 11 of the last 15 were 2^nd season hurdlers
• 8 of the last 10 winners had run at the Festival before
• 9 of the last 11 winners hailed from the top 8 horses in the weights
• 8 of the last 11 winners were rated in the 140’s
• 7 of the last 10 winners DIDN’T win last time out
• 11 of the last 14 winners hailed form the top 7 in the betting
• 18 of the last 25 winners won earlier that season
• Respect JP McManus-owned runners
• Respect trainers Nicky Henderson & Gordon Elliott (5 wins in last 10 years)
• 9 of the last 18 winners were FRENCH-BRED
• 13 of the last 26 won last time out
• Respect Irish-trained runners (5 of the last 11)
• Look for horses that had raced 4 or less times that season (last 11 winners)
• 13 of the last 15 winners had run 32 days or longer ago (look for horses that have had a small break)
• Trainer Gordon Elliott is 2 from 10
• 5 year-olds do well from the small % that have run (win and place)

Negatives….

• No winning favourite in the last 16 years
• Only 3 winners since 2000 had run in 10+ hurdles races
• Horses aged 10+ are just 3 from 305 to even place since 1999
• Horses rated 150+ don’t have a great record, although the 2019 winner was rated 151
• Only 4 of the last 19 winners had raced at the Festival previously
• Only 3 winners since 2000 had run more than 9 times over hurdles
• Willie Mullins won the race in 2018 and had the second in 2019, but overall has a bad record – 35 runners – just two placed inside the top 2

Course winner Protektorat has to enter the mix here for the Skelton’s. 5 year-olds have done well in the race from the small runners that have tried, so that’s a plus, but with only one win over hurdles from 8 runs he’s placed more than winning for me. It’s a race the Irish have done well in recently, while it’s also a contest owner JP McManus has to be respected – he’s got several leading chances again this year, including Alfa Mix and Birchdale – but the one I like is DAME DE COMPAGNIE (e/w), the Nicky Henderson yard that won this race last year and have an overall good record in it. She’s won three of her 7 runs over hurdles and finished in the top two five times. She’s also a course winner (twice) so we know she acts at the track and has been kept fresh for this with a 3-month break – but more likely to also protect her mark. It’s worth noting that it’s also been a graveyard race for the favourite – we’ve not had a single market leader win in the last 16 runnings. Traffic Fluide would be interesting if running here after running a blinder until falling at the last in the Ascot Chase last time – on that running he’s very well-handicapped, but we’ll have to see if he runs. Of those at a bigger price, You Raised Me Up could go well if getting into the race – he was a solid third in Ireland, behind Thosedaysaregone last time and his trainer – Martin Brassil – knows how to ready one for the Festival. The other interesting one though is the Willie Mullins-trained STRATUM (e/w). This classy flat stayer has won twice over hurdles and Mullins often targets this race with a decent sort – he had Wicklow Brave a close second last year and won the race in 2018 with Bleu Berry. This former Cesarewitch winner is a strong stayer and that’s something you need in this race. He’ll be fresher than most as he’s yet to run a race this year, but Mullins is sure to have him well tuned-up for popular owner Tony Bloom.

15:30 Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase   2m

2019 Winner: ALTIOR 4/11 fav
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville

Pluses….

• 12 of the last 19 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
• 4 of the last 7 winners also won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
• 23 of the last 35 had won at the Festival before
• Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 8 of the last 12 between them
• Nicky Henderson has won 5 of the last 8
• 14 of the last 18 winners won last time out
• 16 of the last 17 winners had run that calendar year
• 36 of the last 38 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
• 15 of the last 20 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
• 6 of the last 13 winners were French-bred
• 11 of the last 17 winners were second season chasers
• 13 of the last 15 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season
• 17 of the last 21 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
• 15 of the last 20 winners ran in the previous season’s Arkle or Champion Chase
• 6 of the last 10 Arkle winners (previous season) to run have won
• Past champions do well – 13 horses have won the CC more than once

Negatives….

• Only two winners priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 37 years
• Just 1 winner in last 15 had run 4+ times that season
• Horses that didn’t run in that calendar year are 1-from-30
• Top Irish trainer, Willie Mullins, is yet to win this race
• Just 1 of the last 18 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
• 12 of the last 14 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
• Be wary of horses older than 10 – just 2 winners since 1977
• Only 3 winners aged 6 or younger in the last 46 years
• Just one 11 year-old winner in the last 41 years

Arguably the race of the meeting! It really is take your pick between the current champ – Altior and the two new kids on the block in this division – Defi Du Seuil and Chacun Pour Soi. It wold be foolish for anyone to try and put anyone off any of these three and on all known form they’ve all got big chances. Altior is rated the highest still at 175, but Defi is not far behind on 170 and Chacun is 171 – let’s hope they are all jumping the last as one – something that will take us back to the 1994 renewal (for those that remember) when Viking Flagship, who won the race, Travado and Deep Sensation did just that! Anyway, for what it’s worth I’m happy to stick with the champ. Yes, he blotted his copybook with that defeat at Ascot in November, but Henderson has held his hands up and admitted it was the wrong thing to do. He gave the horse time and Xmas off and he returned at Newbury in the Game Spirit Chase to get back to winning ways. Of course, we all know his running style now – he hits a flat spot and then the afterburners kick in during the final furlong. That happen in this race last year and again at Newbury, so if they are all jumping the last as one I know who I’d rather be on. The big question though – can Altior manage to get within striking distance with two very promising youngsters in opposition this time? For me, Chacun probably has the best form in the book by beating Min by just under 4 lengths last time out in Ireland, and he also beat Defi by just over 4 lengths at Punchestown last May. But his lack of any runs here at Cheltenham has to be a negative in my eyes. I think, of the main three, he’s the one I’m going to rule out – based on having no runs at the track or the Festival. Defi, on the other hand is a Festival pro too – just like Altior. He won the JLT Novices’ Chase last season and also the Triumph Hurdle back in 2017. He’s also done nothing wrong this season in winning the Tingle Creek and Clarence House Chase, so heads into the race having won most of the main trial races for this. If you fancy him, I really can’t put you off him – he ticks a lot of boxes, but for the sake of sticking my neck out I’m happy to stick with ALTIOR. Take that Ascot run out of his CV, that he clearly had excuses for, and he’s still unbeaten over fences. He showed he was better than ever at Newbury last time and that race should have him spot-on for his defence. It will be a huge shock if any of these three isn’t winning, but of the rest the Nicholls pair of Politologue and Dynamite Dollars would probably be the ones to pick up the pieces if some of the main three ran below-par.

16:10 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase   3m 7f

2019 Winner: TIGER ROLL 5/4 fav
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Keith Donoghue

Pluses….

• The Irish have won 13 of the last 15 runnings
• Respect Enda Bolger-trained runners (won the race 5 times)
• 18 of the last 22 winners came from the top three in the betting
• 8 of the last 15 ran in the December Cross Country race here
• Respect Nina Carberry, Richard Johnson and Davy Russell-ridden horses (8 from 16 between them)
• 12 or the last 15 winners were aged 10 or younger
• Trainer Philip Hobbs is 2 from 10 (5 placed in the top 5 too)
• Gordon Elliott has won the last 3 runnings
• 3 of the last 5 winners were owned by the Gigginstown Stud House

Negatives….

• Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record
• Avoid horses aged 7 or younger – they are only 2 from 97
• Horses rated 126 or less have a very poor record
• Trainer Willie Mullins is 0 from 12
• Trainer Paul Nicholls is 0 from 13

16:50 Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle   2m ½f

2019 Winner: BAND OF OUTLAWS7/2 fav
Trainer – Joseph O’Brien
Jockey – J J Slevin  

Pluses….

• 10 of the last 15 winners had run just 3 times over hurdles before
• French bred horses have a good record
• Respect Fillies
• 7 of the last 9 winners all came from the bottom half of the weights/handicap
• 10 of the last 15 had run in the last 25 days
• David Pipe, Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliot and Alan King-trained horses often do well
• 6 of the last 8 winners returned between 25/1 and 40/1
• 10 of the last 15 winners returned a double-figure price
• Respect horses wearing headgear
• 12 of the last 15 winners were ALL rated between 124-134
• 8 of the last 12 winners were British-trained
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has won 3 of the last 10 runnings
• 11 of the last 15 winners had won no more than once over hurdles

Negatives….

• Just 1 recent winner had last raced in January or further back
• Trainers Willie Mullins, Philip Hobbs and Venetia Williams are 0 from 32 between them
• Willie Mullins runners are 0 from 14 (just 1 placed in top 5 too)
• Only 3 winners had run in a handicap hurdle before
• No winner had raced at Cheltenham before
• Horses with 2+ wins over hurdles are 0 from the last 10 years
• British-bred runners are currently 0-51

A race that trainer Paul Nicholls has a good recent record in – winning 3 of the last 10 – so anything he runs has to be respected. He’s got several entered at this stage – Mick Pastor, & Thyme White. There has also been a good word for the Gordon Elliott-trained Aramax doing the rounds. This 4 year-old is looking well-handicapped off a mark of 138 and is a horse that stays very well – something you’ll need over this strongly-run 2 miles. However, with 12 of the last 15 winners rated between 124 and 134 then this looks a good trend. With that in mind, one horse that catches the eye is the Nick Williams-trained GALAHAD (e/w). The yard also won this race in 2017 with Flying Tiger. This 4 year-old is also one of the few with proven course form – even though the stats say that’s a slight negative – but I can’t see how having winning form at the track can be a minus. That came in the Grade Two Triumph Hurdle Juvenile Trial so a good guide. Soft ground is fine too and with the expected improvement looks fair sort to have onside. The other one I’ll be playing is the Hobbs-trained ZOFFEE (e/w). He was a nice winner at Donny last time out and being a former flat horse has a lot more overall racing experience than most. That last win was an easy 12 length success and is closely-matched with the Alan King runner – Blacko – who he finished 2 ¼ lengths behind at Taunton two runs ago. I feel he’s improved since though and on this stiff track can turn the tables with Richard Johnson the icing on the cake.

17:30 Weatherbys Champion Bumper   2m ½f

2019 Winner: ENVOI ALLEN 2/1 fav
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Jamie Codd

Pluses….

• 25 of the last 27 had won last time out (all of last 16)
• 20 of the last 27 winners trained in Ireland
• Respect Irish-trained runners (20 from 36)
• 4 of the last 10 winners were won by UK-based trainers
• 18 of the last 27 came from the top 6 in the betting
• 20 of the last 27 were Irish-bred
• 10 of the last 19 winners were second season horses
• 13 of the last 14 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
• 17 of the last 27 winners aged 5 years-old
• 17 of the last 19 had their debut runs in Ireland
• 11 of the last 17 had been beaten in a race before
• 6 of the last 10 winners returned between 14/1 and 40/1
• Respect Willie Mullins (9 winners) – also had first three in 2018, but is just 3 from last 35 runners
• The Irish lead the British 21-7 in the race history
• Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
• 9 of the last 17 winners came from the top 3 in the betting

Negatives….

• Avoid horses with 4 or more NH Flat runs
• Just 2 winners failed to win last time out
• 4 year-olds are 1 from 60 since 2000 (Cue Card)
• Gigginstown, Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson don’t often focus on the race

A race that year-after-year the Willie Mullins yard are always touted for beforehand – they’ve won the race nine times in total. This year they pin their hopes on Appreciate It, who was hugely impressive when winning at Leopardstown last time out. He’s clearly a very talented horse and looks the sort to go to the very top. Those against him might question what he’s beaten to date but it’s no secret the Mullins camp think a lot of him and with three runs under rules has a lot more experience than most in the race. However, he’s not much value in the betting so it might pay to look elsewhere. Mullins can often pop up with a second or third string in the race, so look for anything else he runs – at the moment he’s got Ferny Hollow and Five Bar Brian in the race too. The Pipe’s, who won this in 2015, run Panic Attack and Israel Champ – both have big chances on form too, but with Tom Scu opting to ride the CD winner Israel Champ, then that might imply they fancy that one more. But this is a race trainer Gordon Elliott likes to win now too, so his runners QUEENS BROOK and ESKYLANE might be worth chancing against the hot Mullins favourite. The first-named gets a mares’ allowance of 7lbs and could be anything having bolted up last time by 21 lengths at Gowan Park – mares also have a good record in the race in recent times. Then Eskylane is reported to be working well and was also a good winner last time out at Navan. Jamie Codd rode them both last time so he’s likely to be on one of them, but both have been the subject of solid home reports and Elliott has won two of the last three renewals.

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