Finding value in horse race betting in 2021

2020 was a terrible year for practically every spectator sport, and horse racing was as badly affected as any. Next year already looks a lot more promising for the industry, however, with crowds already being allowed back onto the courses in small numbers.

Horse racing fans will be eagerly looking forward to the first big meets of the year, including the Cheltenham festival (pencilled in for the middle of March).

Those of us who like a punt on a horse will also be excited at the prospect of top-level racing returning to the UK. That said, statistics show that 95% of sports betting fans lose, so here are 6 ways to increase your chances of joining the winning 5%.

Firstly, it pays to avoid the really big races. Bookmakers know that headline events like the Grand National, Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, and Epsom Derby attract millions of viewers who gamble only a few times a year. These less-savvy customers don’t generally care about high overrounds, and bookies take full advantage, offering some of the worst value odds you are likely to see all year. Even if your horse happens to win or place in these kinds of races, you won’t exactly be receiving anything like fair value.

Secondly, if betting online (and let’s face it, most punters do these days, even if they are on the course itself), you should choose a sports betting site with superior horse racing odds.

Thirdly, and still on the subject of odds, it pays to avoid races with a large field. The more horses in a race, the greater the uncertainty for the bookie, and they will typically respond to that uncertainty by hiking the overround up to extreme levels. We have seen overrounds approaching 40% on some races with 20+ horses. How do you overcome that kind of bookmaker profit margin? The simple answer is, by walking away.

Fourth, while ACCA bets offer the prospect of a big win for a tiny investment, you need to steer clear of accumulators (also called multiples, or parlays) if you are serious about making money. There are two main problems with these kinds of bets. The first is that they pay off very rarely – which increases your variance enormously, and thus requires a large bankroll to ride out the long losing streaks. The second reason is that the already high overrounds on horse races are compounded in accumulator bets, so the value is greatly diminished once you do hit a winner. ACCA bets are hugely exciting wagers – but there is a good mathematical reason why bookies are so happy to offer them.

Where value can be occasionally found is in the live markets. Here you focus on a particular portion of the race and take advantage of the idiosyncrasies of each horse’s form. For example, some horses start well but finish poorly, whereas other horses start off slowly but make a strong run at the end. By laying the first kind of horse a few minutes into race and backing the second kind of horse while it is lagging behind, you can find the kind of value needed to join the ranks of the 5% horse racing winners.

Lastly, it can pay to follow the money, especially when it doesn’t make sense. Let’s face it, horse racing is made up of a lot of insider information, and most trainers and owners dabble in the betting markets. When you see large, unusual volume betting patterns being placed on a horse that has had to travel the length of the country to get to the course, the chances are there is a good reason for that. If you can get in on the action fast enough, then you can find very good value on these kinds of races.

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